NFL Expert Picks Championship Sunday: Top Prop Picks for AFC, NFC Championship

Our Sportsbook Review analysts put together their NFL expert picks for Championship Sunday based on the best NFL odds for the AFC and NFC Championship.

Only four teams remain in the quest to capitalize on their Super Bowl odds, as Championship Sunday is just hours away from kicking off. Two of them will exit the race, with the home sides being favored according to our latest AFC and NFC Championship odds.  

The favored San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens will play host to underdog teams aiming to make history on their journey to this year's title game. While our NFL experts foresee a stellar performance from the stars on Sunday, not every standout player is anticipated to make a significant impact.  

As part of our NFL predictions for Championship Sunday and in conjunction with our Super Bowl predictions, here are our NFL expert picks for the AFC and NFC Championship; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL expert picks Championship Sunday

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Top AFC Championship picks

Patrick Mahomes Under 24.5 completions (-110 via BetMGM)  ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As our C Jackson Cowart noted in his Chiefs vs. Ravens player props, the Chiefs could opt for a more run-heavy approach against a Ravens defense that focuses on clamping down on passes across the middle (which is also why he's taking the Under on Travis Kelce's receiving yards). 

Patrick Mahomes' projections support that narrative. Across five projection models, Mahomes' average passing completions total is 22.66, a far cry from the 25 he'd need to clear this number. When we run that projection against BetMGM's -110 odds on Under 24.5, we're getting roughly 23.5% positive expected value on this bet.

Even if we use the high mark across those projections - which is 24 completions - this is still a 6% +EV bet. Pinnacle is already at -130 on the Under after opening at +101, showing us that sharp action supports our side of this bet.

Cowart also broke down the Chiefs QB's outlook Sunday with his Patrick Mahomes NFL player props.

–– Andrew Brennan (SBR | Twitter/X)

Under 44.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

If you read my Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction, you know that I’m on the Ravens to set the tone in the first half. That line is still playable at anything below a field goal, but our best sports betting apps have started to move the spread to a key number. The Under is my favorite full-game angle as we approach kickoff.

While it might be tempting to bet on points in a game featuring Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, both of these teams have really leaned on their defense this season. The Ravens rank first in scoring defense by giving up an average of 16.5 points per game, but the Chiefs are actually second with an average of 17.3 points per contest allowed.

Baltimore has allowed only one team to score more than 20 points since Week 10, which is why we are seeing Kansas City’s team total trading at 20.5. The Chiefs gave up 24 points to the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round but had held their previous six opponents to 20 points or fewer.

It remains to be seen who will come out on top in this much-anticipated matchup, but you can safely bet on defense on a cold and rainy day in Baltimore. This total touched as high as 45 and has started to fall to 44 at this point in the week. Take advantage of this number at Caesars while you still can.

–– Shane Jackson (SBR | Twitter/X)

Lamar Jackson Over 65.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I went into further detail on this wager in my NFL Championship Sunday player props and my Lamar Jackson NFL player props, but it's not hard to make the case for Jackson clearing any rushing total with the way he's playing right now.

The Super Bowl MVP favorite ran for 100 yards and two touchdowns last week in arguably his best overall performance of the season. What made it particularly impressive was how Jackson responded to the highest blitz rate of his career (75%), dicing up the Houston Texans on quick passes while making them pay on designed runs and scrambles alike.

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has made a career out of bringing heavy pressure, and he's blitzed Jackson on a combined 60 dropbacks through their first four meetings. If Jackson is forced to buy extra time on Sunday, watch out.

–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | Twitter/X)

Top NFC Championship picks

Christian McCaffrey Under 19.5 rushing attempts (-113 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

A five-star Christian McCaffrey Under? In this economy? OK, hear me out.

This rushing attempts total is far too high based on the projection models I refer to, as well as the season-long trends we’ve seen from the San Francisco 49ers.

McCaffrey eclipsed this total only four times all season, and he did so on three occasions during the 49ers’ first four contests. Additionally, in San Francisco’s divisional-round win over the Green Bay Packers, McCaffrey ran the ball just 17 times despite being Deebo Samuel - who often gets some rushes of his own - missing nearly the entire game.

I referred to five different projection models for this bet, and whether we take the average from them or use them separately, we’re getting incredible value on this Under.

First, if you want to use NumberFire’s projection of its own; it comes in at a high of 18.67 rushing attempts. When we run that projection against BetRivers’ -113 odds on Under 19.5, we’re still getting better than 11% positive expected value.

However, if we take the average from those five models - which include NumberFire - we get a rushing total of 16.89. And when we run that number against these odds, we’re getting 40% (yes, 40) +EV on this bet.

Also, this is a bit of a rogue price at BetRivers, as only bet365 has a competitive price at -115 on the Under. Our other best sports betting apps are all hovering around -130 for the Under.

I hit this for 1.5 units, and though that’s not me recommending you do the same, it shows my confidence in this pick.

–– Andrew Brennan (SBR | Twitter/X)

Lions first-half team total Over 9.5 points (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson remains one of the hottest names in the coaching market this offseason, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Washington Commanders hire him as soon as his season ends. Perhaps his last act with the Lions can be leading this team to 10-plus points in the first half.

Only four teams in the NFL averaged more points in the first half than the Lions, who scored 14.8 points per opening stanza this season. That number was 13.6 points per game during the 2022-23 campaign, when Johnson really started to make a name for himself as a play caller.

The 49ers are likely the best team in the NFL, but their defense is still getting too much respect by the market. San Francisco ranks 25th in EPA/rush, which is how Detroit wants to beat you with an offense that ranks sixth in EPA/rush and eighth in rushing success rate.

Much has been made about the Lions playing outdoors for the first time since early December, but the weather doesn’t project to be a problem on Sunday night. We expect Detroit to get off to a fast start behind scripted plays on offense before San Francisco ultimately prevails in the NFC title game.

This same line is priced as high as -150 at BetMGM, so grab this value at DraftKings right away.

–– Shane Jackson (SBR | Twitter/X)

Brock Purdy to throw an interception (+106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is my favorite prop bet of the weekend, and as I laid out in my Lions vs. 49ers NFL player props, it feels like Purdy is due for an interception this weekend.

That isn't a hunch; that's a statistical inference based on his inconsistent play throughout the season, especially of late. Purdy finished the regular season with 11 interceptions but 18 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF, and he got away with multiple near-turnovers in last week's win over the Green Bay Packers.

Purdy could be without Deebo Samuel on Sunday, and the wideout's absence earlier this season spurred a turnover spree from his young quarterback. Even if he does play, a less-than-healthy Samuel combined with the Lions' elite pass rush and Purdy's erratic play make this a compelling bet at plus-money odds.

Our own Philip Wood is also pessimistic about the 49ers QB in his Brock Purdy NFL player props.

–– C Jackson Cowart (SBR | Twitter/X)

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