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Brock Purdy NFL Player Props, Odds NFC Championship: Predictions for Lions vs. 49ers

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 28, 2024 4:13 PM EST • 2 min 61 sec read.

Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers runs onto the field as we make our Brock Purdy NFL player props picks and predictions for Sunday's NFC Championship against the Detroit Lions.
Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers runs onto the field prior to a game against the Baltimore Ravens at Levi's Stadium on December 25, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. Photo by Loren Elliott/Getty Images via AFP.

The San Francisco 49ers play host to the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game, and we're making our best Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.

San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy was part of the MVP conversation for much of the regular season until he faced a setback with a four-interception performance against the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Day. Nevertheless, he remains a prominent figure in the discussion surrounding the Super Bowl MVP odds.  

Purdy struggled in the NFL Divisional Round against the Green Bay Packers last week, but he has an advantageous matchup in the NFC Championship against a Detroit Lions secondary known for conceding a lot of yards through the air. Can he exploit that mismatch and keep the 49ers' Super Bowl odds alive?

In addition to our Lions vs. 49ers prediction and Lions vs. 49ers NFL player props, here are our best Brock Purdy NFL player props for the NFC Championship (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions for NFC Championship

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Brock Purdy player props

Brock Purdy Under 280.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Lions’ pass defense has allowed five consecutive quarterbacks to throw for at least 300 yards against them. Though Purdy has five 300-yard passing games of his own, this total is too high.

None of the teams that the Lions have faced over the past few weeks have a rushing attack as good as the 49ers’. Christian McCaffrey won the rushing title this season, and last week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and top rusher Rachaad White exploited a few weaknesses in the Lions’ run defense.

Purdy has thrown for fewer than 260 yards in four consecutive games and starts for a team averaging 29.1 rushing attempts per game. No matter how weak the Lions’ pass defense is, this number is not in line with how the 49ers play. To get this at -110 is great value.

Brock Purdy Under 21.5 completions (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Purdy has completed more than 21 passes in just four games this season. Last week, he completed 23 passes, but he also attempted 39, his most in any game this year. Even if the 49ers struggle to run the ball against the Lions, a lot would need to happen for Purdy to go over this total.

The most passes Purdy has completed in a game this season is 25 and that came back in Week 3. For the remainder of the regular season, he never threw more than 22 completions in a game. And for as bad as the Lions’ defense has been, they’re allowing just 22.2 completions per game, 18th in the NFL.

Every one of our best sports betting sites are favoring under 21.5. However, FanDuel has this total listed at 20.5 with +104 odds to the Under. If you want to take a bigger risk for a better payout, that could be worth a play.

Brock Purdy longest completion Over 40.5 yards (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Two weeks ago, the Lions were burned for multiple big plays. Last week, the Bucs still managed some chunk plays, but the longest pass the Lions allowed was 29 yards. While that is a sign that the Lions can make adjustments when necessary, Purdy is still going to hit this really high over on Sunday.

Purdy has thrown at least one pass of 30 or more yards in all but two games this season, and he’s thrown a pass of at least 40 yards in 10 games. The Lions give up a lot of big plays, and they struggled against the Los Angeles Rams and Puka Nacua’s ability to gain yards after the catch.

49ers stars Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and McCaffrey are all great at racking up yards after catch, and at least one of them is going to have a big play in this game.

Brock Purdy player prop picks made Saturday at 9:12 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.