Chiefs vs. Ravens Prediction, Pick & Odds: AFC Championship Game
We expect the heavyweight matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs to deliver in Sunday's AFC Championship with a Super Bowl berth at stake, and we have you covered with our Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction based on the best NFL odds.
Achieving greatness often means beating the best. Quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens understand that challenge is just hours away as they prepare to face Patrick Mahomes and the reigning champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, in the AFC Championship Game.
Sunday marks the first instance in NFL history where two former league MVPs under 30 years old go head-to-head in the postseason, and it's the inaugural playoff meeting between these standout quarterbacks.
Mahomes has secured three victories out of their four regular-season matchups. Still, Jackson, the current favorite for Super Bowl MVP odds, emerged victorious in their most recent meeting in Baltimore in 2021. Mahomes will be dealing with a significant loss with offensive lineman Joe Thuney ruled out for the game with a pec injury.
The Ravens, who rank second among the Super Bowl odds favorites, are hosting the AFC title game for the first time in franchise history and hoping the crowd will be a factor on Sunday. But will that be enough to defeat a Chiefs team getting hot at the right time?
Our C Jackson Cowart has more on how both signal-callers will fare in his Lamar Jackson player props and Patrick Mahomes player props.
As part of our Conference Championship Odds breakdown and to accompany our Super Bowl predictions, our Chiefs vs. Lions player props, and our Travis Kelce player props, here are our best Chiefs vs. Ravens predictions and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction: AFC Championship
Harrison Butker Over 1.5 field goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -105 via ESPN BET
There's been much debate about how good Baltimore's defense truly is so far this week. While the Ravens rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA and among the league leaders in EPA, the counterargument appears to be the uninspiring list of opposing quarterbacks. In truth, both arguments carry some weight.
No defense is good enough to stop the league's best quarterback. Mahomes will absolutely put up numbers on Sunday, and likely push his team down the field for quality drives. I just believe Baltimore's top-ranked scoring defense will rise to the occasion in the red zone, where the team ranks second in the league with a 40.8% touchdown rate allowed.
That means Andy Reid might opt to settle for multiple field goals in this one, especially considering Harrison Butker is arguably the NFL's second-best kicker. Butker went 33-for-35 on field-goal attempts in 2023, hitting the Over on this prop during 10 of his 17 games.
This Over has gone from +100 to as short as -127 at some of our NFL prop betting sites, so it's worth taking advantage of this -105 value through ESPN BET.
Ravens -2.5 first half ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 at DraftKings
This was my pick earlier in the week, and while the spread has been juiced a bit at most of our best sportsbooks, I still like betting on the Ravens at anything below a field goal in the first half.
The Ravens are typically a team that comes out hot during the Jackson era. Baltimore is 51-29-2 against the spread during the first half with Jackson under center. The Ravens will surely produce a similar showing in front of a raucous crowd during their first home AFC title game in franchise history.
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Chiefs vs. Ravens best odds
ESPN BET (-105)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | ESPN BET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 FGM | Over 1.5 FGM | Over 1.5 FGM | Over 1.5 FGM | Over 1.5 FGM |
| -115 | N/A | -135 | -127 | -105 |
It's delightful to see so many of our best sports betting apps offering kicker props, illustrating how much sports betting has been growing in recent years. There are more markets being released in such a competitive industry.
Bettors are better off, as now we can price shop and take advantage of some solid discounts. In this case, ESPN BET is well off market with a -105 offering on Over 1.5 field goals for Butker. This line should be priced closer to -120, so take advantage while you still can.
Chiefs vs. Ravens odds
Chiefs vs. Ravens odds analysis
The Ravens opened as 3-point favorites, and the market quickly hit the home team with plenty of action to take advantage. The line has now moved to 3.5 or 4 at our best sports betting sites. We expect there to be buyback on the Chiefs later in the week.
The total has mostly remained at 44.5 so far, despite there being more action on the Over.
Chiefs vs. Ravens game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 27 at 3 p.m. ET
- Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 44 degrees, 13-mph winds, 79% chance of precipitation
Chiefs-Ravens prediction made Thursday at 2:50 p.m. ET.
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