Jacoby Brissett is set to make his final start for the Cleveland Browns ahead of Deshaun Watson's return, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to continue their upward momentum. We assess these storylines and more in our Buccaneers-Browns NFL picks.
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have found new life in the NFC playoff hunt, winning two straight and entering Week 12 atop the NFC South. The Bucs return from a bye week to visit the Cleveland Browns, whose postseason hopes are all but over following a 1-6 slide.
Buccaneers vs. Browns Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 27, 1 p.m. ET
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Weather: 49 degrees, 63% chance of precipitation, 14-mph winds
Buccaneers vs. Browns Odds
Buccaneers vs. Browns Odds Analysis
Tampa Bay was installed as a -3 favorite and after minimal line movement, the spread remains there ahead of kickoff. More than 80% of the early tickets and two-thirds of the handle supported Tampa Bay.
The total dropped significantly from the open of 45.5 to 42 at most books. The Under is drawing 76% of the cash, while the Over is getting 57% of the tickets.
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Buccaneers vs. Browns Picks
Buccaneers vs. Browns ATS Pick
Buccaneers -3.5 (+100) ★★★★
The Bucs were nine seconds away from a fourth straight loss that would have dropped them to 3-6 just a few weeks ago. Now after a dramatic 16-13 win over the Los Angeles Rams and then a 21-16 victory against the Seattle Seahawks in Germany that wasn’t as close as the score suggests, Tampa Bay looks like a rejuvenated group capable of making some noise in the NFC.
Defense was never the issue for the Bucs, who have allowed 21 points or fewer in eight of their 10 contests. Neither was throwing the ball, with Tom Brady averaging 280.5 passing yards per game while tossing to talented receivers like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones. Suddenly, it seems like the offense may have discovered a running game too while gaining a season-high 161 yards on the ground against the Seahawks.
Although Deshaun Watson will return from a suspension in Week 13, the season is already essentially over for the Browns. Cleveland has allowed 70 points in its last two outings and is 1-6 over the team's previous seven affairs while sitting in the basement of the AFC North. I’ll happily fade them to lose by more than a field goal.
Buccaneers vs. Browns O/U Pick
Under 43 (-110) ★★★
This may look like a low total for a game involving two decent offenses and a horrible Cleveland defense. But a quick look at the forecast explains why the Over/Under sits in the low 40s, and I’m not convinced it’s quite low enough. Cleveland isn't exactly a popular late-November vacation destination at the best of times, and there's an 80% chance of rain with winds gusting up to 30 miles per hour.
Brady has logged plenty of experience playing in inclement conditions during his time with the New England Patriots, so I’m still comfortable backing him and the Bucs. However, those winds should hamper the ability of both teams to throw deep, meaning lots of short pass attempts and more reliance on the running game.
Check out our top trends to know for Week 12.
Buccaneers vs. Browns Prop Pick
White anytime scorer (+115) ★★
White posted his first career 100-plus-yard rushing performance against Seattle while leading the Bucs with 22 carries. He could be Tampa Bay’s lead back once again in Week 12 with Leonard Fournette nursing a hip injury. White is also a popular option for Tom Brady, hauling in 20 of his 25 targets in 2022.
If White receives a similar similar workload against Cleveland, he should be able to get into the end zone at least once. The Browns have allowed the most rushing TDs in the league.
Check out our Over/Under picks for Week 12.
Where to Bet on Buccaneers-Browns Picks
Buccaneers-Browns picks made 11/24/2022 at 12:43 p.m. ET.