NFL Betting Trends to Know for Week 12: Back Favorites on Turkey Day
The NFL usually sees an uptick in wagers during Thanksgiving week, as even the most casual of bettors tend to get involved while watching the games on the holiday. What kinds of trends are the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys working with as the two traditional annual home teams on Thanksgiving Day? We dive into that and more in our list of Week 12 trends to know in the NFL.
One of the most challenging things for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends in each game and determine their relevance or impact on the game at hand.
For example, head-to-head data between two teams dating back to the 1970s provide little insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time. Thus, we aim to give you the most relevant information and trends to use when making your weekly wagers.
Here are our top three NFL trends to know for Week 12 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Top NFL Betting Trends for Week 12
Bills (-9.5) vs. Lions, Cowboys (-8.5) vs. Giants, Vikings (-3) vs. Patriots
Since 2000, favorites are 38-21 against the spread on Thanksgiving
Included in that 38-21 ATS record (64.4% cover percentage) is that home favorites are 17-12 ATS, while road favorites are 21-9 in that span.
The annual hosts have had a rough go of it on Thanksgiving recently. Detroit is 37-43-2 straight up on Thanksgiving and has not won since 2016 against Minnesota. Since 1990, Detroit has won 10 of its 11 games as favorites on the holiday but is a paltry 3-17 SU as underdogs in that span. Meanwhile, Dallas lost 36-33 in overtime to Las Vegas last year as 7.5-point favorites and have dropped three straight Thanksgiving games for the first time since 1986-1989.
There is less by way of trends concerning the totals on Thanksgiving Day games. Since 2000, the Under is 30-29; since 2010, the Over has cashed in 18 of the 34 (52.9%) Thanksgiving games.
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Titans (+1.5, +110 ML) vs. Bengals
The Titans have covered the spread in eight consecutive games
Mike Vrabel has gone 9-7 or better in his first four full seasons as Tennessee Titans head coach and has gone Over his projected win total every year, per Warren Sharp. In addition, the Titans have won the most games outright as an underdog (22), and no team has a higher winning percentage (56.4%) as underdogs in that span.
Tennessee has the longest active cover streak in the NFL at eight games and joined the 2021 Packers, 2020 Bills, 2018 Saints, 2016 Cowboys, and 2015 Vikings as the only teams in the league to cover eight consecutive games in the last 10 years.
With last week’s outright win as underdogs on Thursday night against Green Bay, the Titans improved to 24-14 ATS as underdogs under Vrabel, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill is now 4-0 SU, and ATS following wins this season. Tannehill has won his last six games as a starter and now faces a Bengals team that has won six of eight games after starting 0-2.
Bills-Lions Under 54, Ravens-Jaguars Under 45.5, Bengals-Titans Under 43, Buccaneers-Browns Under 44, Broncos-Panthers Under 35, Chargers-Cardinals Under 47.5
In games where the road team is favored this season, the Under is 46-21 (68.7%)
Two weeks ago, the record for such Unders was 41-17 (71%), so oddsmakers seem to be slowly making up for this one-sided trend and evening things out a bit.
Among the teams involved in this trend this week, Denver is easily the most profitable Under team in the league. The Broncos have seen the Under cash in nine of their 10 games and face a Panthers team that is 7-4 to the Under.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s team total will be interesting to watch this week. As 3-point favorites in a game with an O/U of 44 points, the Buccaneers have an implied team total of 23.5 against Cleveland. Tampa Bay’s team total Under has cashed nine times through the first 10 games, making the Buccaneers the most profitable team to bet via the Under of their team total in that span. They face a Cleveland team that has allowed at least 30 points in five games this season, the most in the NFL.
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