NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 12
Odell Beckham Jr. may sign with the winner of the Dallas Cowboys versus New York Giants game on Thanksgiving, but who should we back to cover the spread? Our NFL power rankings look at our favorite point spread picks for Week 12.
Fire up all the sports betting apps you own, and if you do not have multiple accounts, I strongly recommend signing up for as many of our top-rated sportsbooks as possible. In Week 12, our top teams in the ATS power rankings not only have an advantage in the numbers, but they also represent an excellent price shopping opportunity at PointsBet.
The following are the power rankings of my favorite point spread picks for Week 12 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; lines as of Monday, Nov. 21 at 9 a.m. ET).
NFL ATS Picks Power Rankings for Week 12
10. Broncos -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) at Panthers
The Denver Broncos should fold their team if they cannot beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 12. In my power ratings, I make the Broncos 3.5-point favorites over the Panthers, and if this were any other NFL team, this wager would be ranked higher. It is a dream come true to be able to buy a spread below the key number of 3 points when you believe it should be trading as a 3.5-point favorite. It is unfortunate that it is the Broncos. Morale is low, and I am not confident that you will be able to trust them with anything going forward. While the numbers say to bet on the Broncos, my heart says to stay away.
9. Giants +9 (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook) at Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys just dominated the Minnesota Vikings on the road, whereas the New York Giants lost at home to the Detroit Lions. On a short week due to Thanksgiving, recency bias will play a significant role in how the market moves this number. The Giants play a style of football that makes it much more appealing to back them as large underdogs than to cover the number as favorites. I make the Cowboys 7.5-point favorites over the Giants, which is why I'm taking New York, but I wouldn't bet on this number just yet. There will be a lot of money on the Cowboys this week, which should push the number up to Giants +10. That's when I would bet on the Giants.
8. Eagles -6.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Packers
As a result of their narrow victory over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 11, the Philadelphia Eagles disappointed their backers as they failed to cover the spread of 6.5 points. Due to this, it is not surprising that we have an edge on the Eagles' side of the line in Week 12. I make the Eagles 7-point favorites over the Green Bay Packers, so there is only a half-point difference in their current price; however, that half-point is much more relevant when you are comparing the line of Eagles -6.5 against the key number of 7.
7. Titans +1.5 (-110 via FanDuel Sportsbook) vs. Bengals
There is only one thing head coach Mike Vrabel does for the Tennessee Titans—win football games. Even though I've been a Titans hater all season, there's no denying what they've accomplished. It's not just personal for the Titans and their coaching staff, as the Cincinnati Bengals knocked them out of the playoffs last season, but there is also an edge on the Titans' side of the spread. It's likely that the Bengals will be without running back Joe Mixon after he entered concussion protocol, and I expect the spread to move to make this a pick'em over the course of the week.
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6. Jaguars +4 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Ravens
When evaluating the Baltimore Ravens' Week 12 spread, there is one key injury that you will want to keep an eye on, and that is left tackle Ronnie Stanley, who left last week's game due to an ankle injury. That said, buyer beware with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have demonstrated value multiple times this season but failed to cash in. I make the Ravens 3-point favorites over the Jaguars on the road, so although it is only one point in the number, the difference between 3 and 4 points is significant when it comes to a football point spread.
5. Dolphins -11.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Texans
In my opinion, the Houston Texans have officially lost all of their fight and are committed to replacing Davis Mills with a quarterback selected with the first overall pick. My expectation was that the Texans would be able to put up a good fight against the Washington Commanders in Week 11 but they came out completely flat. In my opinion, the Dolphins are a couple points better than what the market is trading them at against the Texans, because the Texans lack the offensive firepower required to compete in this game.
4. Jets -5.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Bears
Since quarterback Zach Wilson performed so poorly against the New England Patriots in Week 11, nobody will be interested in backing the New York Jets as large favorites this week. That's perfect! I don't care about this at all, so give me the Jets. Wilson should benefit from the Chicago Bears' poor pass defense, and the Jets can cover this number off of their defense. I make the Jets 8.5-point favorites over the Bears, which is significantly higher than the 5.5-point spread that is available in the market at this time.
3. Lions +9.5 (-105 via PointsBet) vs. Bills
We’re going streaking! The Detroit Lions have made the ATS power rankings for the fourth consecutive week and are 3-0 with three outright wins. There is value in the Lions' spread each week because the market hasn't caught up to their current level of play, similar to the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks earlier in the season. I make the Bills 7.5-point favorites over the Lions. Multiple points are less valuable in a higher spread, otherwise, the Lions would rank higher in the power rankings.
2. Steelers +3 (-107 via PointsBet) at Colts
Even though the Colts lost last week to the Eagles, the Jeff Saturday and Parks Frazier hype lives on as a result of the way the Colts have played in their first two games under the new regime. This can be seen in the way the market is pricing this game. I view this matchup as a pick'em between the Steelers and Colts, so I will gladly take the Steelers and the 3 points.
With the Steelers trading at +3 (-107) via PointsBet but juiced to -118 at FanDuel for the same line, early in the week, we have a nice price shopping opportunity as well. My expectation is that this line will move away from the key number of 3 points and toward the Steelers, so I would purchase this immediately.
1. Seahawks -3.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Raiders
The Seattle Seahawks are back in the ATS power rankings and in a big way after disappearing for a couple of weeks. The Seahawks spread has a significant edge and there is also a great price shopping opportunity with the Seahawks. This is clearly a coaching mismatch, as Pete Carroll has two weeks to prepare for Josh McDaniels.
Compared to how the market has priced this matchup, I make the Seahawks 7-point favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders. Along with the advantage I have in my numbers, I also have the opportunity to take advantage of a price-shopping opportunity with the Seahawks early in the week.
DraftKings and Caesars have this priced at Seahawks -4 (-110), while PointsBet trades them at -3.5 (-107). With a lower spread, off of a key number, and less juice, what's not to like?
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NFL against-the-spread picks made 11/21/2022 at 9 a.m. ET.