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Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 20, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 20, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

Week 11 was a scoring fest to say the least, with all but two games resulting in at least 33 total points. Here are our top NFL Over/Under picks of NFL Week 12. Check out our top NFL against-the-spread picks.

Week 11 did a good job of keeping the ball rolling following a high-scoring Week 10 of NFL action, with nine games resulting in 40-plus points and five games finishing with more than 48 points. A pair of high-scoring teams missed out on the festivities as the Seattle Seahawks and Miami Dolphins, respectively fifth and sixth in points per game, had a bye in Week 11. The other two teams on a bye were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Week 12 is a special week of NFL actions as Thursday will feature a trio of Thanksgiving games, starting with the Buffalo Bills facing the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. This will also be the first complete slate in several weeks, as all 32 teams are set to play. Will scoring continue to rise as teams begin to tighten things up in the midst of a red-hot playoff race?

Here are our top NFL Over/Under picks of Week 12 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our top NFL Thanksgiving picks!

NFL Week 12 Over/Under Picks

  • Houston Texans-Miami Dolphins Over 47 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★★★
  • Los Angeles Chargers-Arizona Cardinals Over 48 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★★★
  • Green Bay Packers-Philadelphia Eagles Under 46.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★★★★

Texans vs. Dolphins Over/Under Pick

Over 47 (-110) ★★★★★

The Miami Dolphins are coming off their bye week with one goal in mind – capturing their first AFC East division title since 2008. At 7-3, the Dolphins are currently tied with the Buffalo Bills, yet they remain confident as the offense hasn’t looked this explosive in years. The combination of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and his duo of uber-talented wideouts, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, has resulted in 25.2 points per game – a mark just outside the top five in the league.

Unfortunately, Miami also concedes 24.1 points per game. The Houston Texas are far from offensive juggernauts, but they’ve also been held to 13 or fewer points just four times this season. This is significant because it shows that the Texans can usually carry their weight to the point total, stemming from negative game scripts that often force them to air the ball out.

Their other not-so-secret weapon, rookie running back Dameon Pierce, is capable of ripping off large runs and hitting pay dirt. The Dolphins’ ability to score points, combined with their tendency to surrender multiple scores, should have this game hitting the Over 47 with ease.

Chargers vs. Cardinals Over/Under Pick

Over 48 (-110) ★★★★★

Motivation won’t be hard to come by for the Los Angeles Chargers, as this team is craving revenge following a heartbreaking 30-27 loss to the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs. At 5-5, time is running out on the Chargers' playoff hopes. Luckily, key injured players are starting to make their way back into the lineup and quarterback Justin Herbert is starting to find his groove. Last week against the Chiefs, Herbert threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns. More importantly, his 77% pass completion rate was his highest mark of the season.

Los Angeles sits 14th in points per game, but that number could certainly be a lot higher when you factor in the injuries. The Arizona Cardinals have a similar number of points per game for and against this season; the difference is they’ve been on the downswing lately – having allowed 31 or more points in three of their last four games. A couple of above-average offensive teams, who have typically struggled on defense, set the stage for a high-scoring affair.

Packers vs. Eagles Over/Under Pick

Under 46.5 (-110) ★★★★★

Life is suddenly a lot less comfortable for the Philadelphia Eagles as they saw their eight-game, season-opening winning streak come to an abrupt halt in an embarrassing 32-21 loss to the Washington Commanders. Last week’s narrow 17-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts wasn’t too inspiring either; however, a primetime game against a struggling Green Bay Packers group could be just what NFC East leaders need.

Green Bay is scoring an abysmal 18.4 points per game, which is over a score less than the Eagles’ average of 26.3 points per game. The Packers have lost four of their last five games, allowing 23-plus points in four of them. Philadelphia should have no problem dismantling Green Bay’s weak secondary thanks to its bevy of talented receivers, but it’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Eagles are surrendering points with regularity. There are far more potential outcomes favoring the Under.

Where to Bet on NFL Week 12 Over/Under Picks

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NFL Over/Under picks made 11/23/2022 at 5:08 p.m. ET.