Bijan Robinson TNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds
Atlanta Falcons fans and fantasy football managers with a vested interest in seeing Bijan Robinson play can finally exhale.
The 22-year-old running back is good to go for Thursday Night Football despite fears over the hamstring he recently injured.
- The Falcons are the consensus Thursday Night Football odds favorites
- The Falcons face the Buccaneers' 30th-ranked run defense via PFF, forming the bedrock of our Robinson TNF player props
- There's excellent value currently at one of our NFL betting sites for a Robinson rushing yards prop
With a victory at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Falcons will join the Buccaneers atop the NFC South.
Read more TNF expert analysis, including our Buccaneers vs. Falcons early picks, Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction, all part of our Week 5 predictions.
Bijan Robinson prop predictions for Thursday Night Football
- Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Bijan Robinson Over 14.5 carries (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Bijan Robinson Over 59.5 rushing yards (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Bijan Robinson touchdown pick vs. Buccaneers
Bijan Robinson anytime TD (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Robinson has just one touchdown in four games, although Week 4 saw a substantial reduction in workload due to his ailing hamstring.
His red zone production has been minimal, with just six carries for minus-one yards. Kirk Cousins has targeted Robinson once in the red zone, resulting in a seven-yard reception.
Robinson should get more action in the red zone against a team that cannot stop the run. Plus, the Buccaneers are allowing touchdowns on 47% of opposing red-zone possessions.
It's only a matter of time before he starts hitting pay dirt more consistently. He finished last season with eight touchdowns and is currently on pace for four scores. Plus, the Buccaneers have allowed seven rushing touchdowns, tied for the second most with the Miami Dolphins.
At -120, bet365 offers the best price for a Robinson score. Caesars' price is the steepest at -141, which would pay a $7.09 profit on a $10 bet, while bet365's profit is $8.33.
Best odds: -120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Bijan Robinson player props
NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Bijan Robinson Over 14.5 carries ⭐⭐⭐
This prop is highly dependent on the status of Robinson's hamstring. However, I feel confident considering he's been cleared to play. There's no way the Falcons would put their star running back in harm's way, especially considering how fragile vulnerable hamstrings can be.
Omitting last week's reduced production, Robinson has averaged 16 carries per contest. Cousins hands the ball off to Robinson on 27% of the Falcons' snaps, a share that should increase against one of the league's worst run defenses.
In addition, I don't see Atlanta chasing the game, which should allow the offense to commit to the run game throughout.
Our best sports betting apps vary wildly in their valuation.
BetMGM and bet365 offer the longest odds, -115, while DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering plus-money odds.
A winning $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.
Best odds: +105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 48.78%
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Bijan Robinson Over 59.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Robinson averages 4.1 yards per carry, and he should get about 16 attempts.
His lowest yards per attempt (1.9) came on 16 carries against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3. The Chiefs have the ninth-best run defense. Meanwhile, Robinson's most productive contest came against the Philadelphia Eagles' 29th-ranked run defense.
He averaged 6.9 yards per carry and had 97 yards in that contest.
The Buccaneers' run defense ranks one position lower than the Eagles, and I expect Robinson to take advantage of the ideal conditions Mercedes-Benz Stadium offers.
He's projected to run for 61.6 rushing yards.
FanDuel offers -110 at 59.5 yards, which is easily the best value on the board. bet365 offers +110 but has the total set at a much higher 63.5. FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering 59.5 yards, so jump on the opportunity while it lasts.
A $10 winning bet will profit $9.09.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Falcons -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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