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NFL Best Bets, Odds Week 13: Matchups, Picks, Predictions

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 3 min 63 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

Including Thursday night's matchup between two AFC East teams, there are road favorites in eight of the 15 games on this week's NFL slate. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our NFL picks and best bets for Week 13.

Is QB Mike White going to save the New York Jets' season from going south? Sportsbooks like DraftKings think they will stay the course even though they are starting their third quarterback of the season. New York's 11-year playoff drought is the longest active streak among all 32 NFL teams, but DraftKings has the Jets with a -115 chance to make the playoffs entering this week.

Here are our best bets for Week 13’s NFL slate (odds via BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out all of our top NFL picks for Week 13!

Week 13 NFL Schedule and Odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Week 13 NFL Best Bets

  • Moneyline: 49ers (-190 via BetMGM) vs. Dolphins
  • Spread: Bengals +2.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Chiefs
  • Total: Jets-Vikings Over 44.5 (-105 via FanDuel)
  • Upset: Raiders (+108 via FanDuel) vs. Chargers
  • Team Prop: Giants team total Under 19.5 (-115 via DraftKings) 

NFL Top Picks for Week 13

Moneyline: 49ers (-190) ★★★★

The Miami Dolphins suffered a devastating injury last week that went largely under the radar. Left tackle Terron Armstead is expected to miss a few weeks due to a pectoral injury. After Armstead left last week's win over the Houston Texans, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa was sacked on four of his 11 dropbacks. Miami pulled Tua early in the third quarter because of all the hits he was taking, and now he faces a San Francisco 49ers defense that pressures quarterbacks on 30.5% of dropbacks (12th-best).

San Francisco's six double-digit wins are tied for the most in the league, and it has not allowed a point in the second half in four consecutive games, which matches the longest single-season streak by any team in the Super Bowl era. Thus, we expect the 49ers to take care of business at home and continue their dominance of 10.0 points per game allowed during their four-game winning streak.

Bettors will find at least 10 cents worth of value on this moneyline at BetMGM, as the next closest competitors are at -200 or higher to back San Francisco straight up.

Spread: Bengals +2.5 (-110) ★★★★

Despite not having running back Joe Mixon healthy last week, the Cincinnati Bengals still rushed for over 100 yards against the Tennessee Titans. And in a game that projects to be close, we know we can count on Joe Burrow, as he has six touchdown passes in the fourth quarter of one-score games this season.

Burrow has 25 touchdowns (passing and rushing) and five turnovers in his last 10 games, and he is 6-1 with a 14-0 TD-INT ratio in non-divisional games this year. He now gets a healthy Ja'Marr Chase back this week, and Cincinnati's explosive offense is complemented by a defense that allows touchdowns on just 50% of opponents' red-zone drives this year (ranks sixth).

FanDuel and BetMGM are the only places left where one can find +2.5 on the underdogs.

Total: Jets-Vikings Over 44.5 (-105) ★★★★

New York had a season-high 466 total yards, punted twice, and had 22 first downs against the Bears in White's first start this season. New York's 7.5 yards per play were its best in a game since 2018, and it had three touchdowns of 20-plus yards for the first time in four seasons.

The Jets' 10.9 yards per attempt were their most since 2019, and their 58% third-down conversion rate was their best since 2020. White also shredded the Chicago Bears' man coverage, with 16.5 yards per attempt, the second-highest for any team this year against man coverage (minimum 10 attempts).

On the other side, Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins completed 81.1% of his passes last week, the second-highest completion percentage ever for a quarterback against a Bill Belichick-coached team.

Upset: Raiders (+108) ★★★

It took 11 games, but the 4-7 Las Vegas Raiders have finally won back-to-back games for the first time this season, albeit with touchdowns in overtime. Those victories should be confidence boosters for a team that lost by one possession in six of its seven defeats. 

Quarterback Derek Carr is coming off his 23rd career game with three or more touchdown passes (first this season), and running back Josh Jacobs just set the franchise record for most rushing yards (229) and scrimmage yards (303). In addition, his 303 scrimmage yards are the most in a single game since Antonio Brown in 2015.

The Chargers have not been able to stop the run all season (rank 28th with 151.4 rushing yards per game allowed), so Las Vegas can ride Jacobs to another upset win. The Raiders are privy to beating good teams, as they are 5-2 straight up in their last seven games against teams with a winning record.

Check out our top NFL upset picks for Week 13!

Team prop: Giants team total Under 19.5 (-115) ★★★

New York Giants pass catchers are dropping passes at a 6.1% rate (second-most in the league), and as teams have keyed in on running back Saquon Barkley recently, nobody in New York's receiving group has proven they can win one-on-one on the outside.

Check out our top touchdown scorer prop picks!

Giants QB Daniel Jones has a 57.8 QBR outside the pocket (seventh-best), but his 6.9 yards per attempt ranks 22nd. In addition, the Washington Commanders are not a team you want to face with three offensive linemen potentially out, as they pressure quarterbacks on 33.3% of dropbacks (fifth).

Where to Bet on the NFL

Best NFL Betting Sites:

NFL Week 13 best bets made on 12/2/22 at 6:38 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.