NFL Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks for Week 13: Pacheco in Prime Position to Score
Injuries have cleared the way for Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco to be the top rusher this week against the Cincinnati Bengals, and he headlines our top NFL touchdown-scorer prop picks for Week 13.
Touchdown markets are an entertaining opportunity to add some action to your weekly NFL betting portfolio. This week a number of favorable matchups and players in line for statistical correction stand out.
Here are our Week 13 NFL touchdown prop picks (odds via PointsBet, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 13.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
- Isiah Pacheco anytime TD scorer (+120 via PointsBet) ★★★
- D.K. Metcalf anytime TD scorer (+130 via DraftKings) ★★★
- Pat Freiermuth anytime TD scorer (+230 via FanDuel) ★★
Pacheco anytime TD (+120) ★★★
This is a value recommendation with Pacheco trading as low as -115 to find the end zone via Caesars Sportsbook. The rookie back had his highest offensive snap count of the season in Week 12, which included handling 12 red-zone carries and scoring his second touchdown of the year.
Additionally, Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon hasn’t practiced this week due to a hamstring injury. His absence would position Pacheco as the clear No. 1 rusher for Sunday’s matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.
There’s nothing worrisome about the matchup against Cincinnati, either. The Bengals rank 15th in rush defense DVOA per Football Outsiders and 20th in run defense grade per Pro Football Focus. I’m also encouraged that the Chiefs-Bengals game has the highest Over/Under total of Week 13.
Metcalf anytime TD (+130) ★★★
There’s a statistical correction to Seattle Seahawks wide receiver D.K. Metcalf’s touchdown total ahead, and the reeling Los Angeles Rams should prove to be a slump-busting matchup. The Rams are banged up on both sides of the ball, and five-time Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey hasn’t been shadowing a particular opposing wide receiver this year.
Metcalf found the end zone 22 times across 33 games the past two seasons, but he’s scored only four touchdowns this season. In particular, his red-zone efficiency has been considerably lower. He’s converted just 15.8% of his red-zone targets into touchdowns in 2022, after a tidy 38.9% clip over the previous two seasons.
It’s also worth adding Metcalf garnered 15 targets – four in the red zone – during the Week 12 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.
While there isn’t a wide range in the odds for Metcalf’s anytime-touchdown prop across our top-rated sportsbooks, DraftKings is offering the best number. It’s also worth noting there are prebuilt parlays available for a Metcalf anytime touchdown and Seattle to win. DraftKings and PointsBet have the best odds available at +175.
Freiermuth anytime TD (+230) ★★
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth is another player eyeing positive regression in the touchdowns column. He scored seven times as a rookie and converted 35% of his red-zone targets into touchdowns last season. This year, he's found the end zone only once and dipped to an 11.1% red-zone efficiency on nine targets.
While the Atlanta Falcons have allowed only two touchdowns to opposing tight ends all season, they’ve surrendered the third most receptions and most passes per game to the position. As a result, I consider this a neutral matchup at worst.
Additionally, Freiermuth is running routes on 65% of his offensive plays and has developed his big-play ability this season with seven receptions of over 20 yards. He also continues to be a focus near the opposition's goal line with five red-zone targets over the past four games.
The +230 odds available through FanDuel are also considerably more attractive than the +185 number via Caesars.
Two or More Touchdowns Pick
- Nick Chubb 2+ TD scorer (+350 via FanDuel) ★★
Chubb two-plus touchdowns (+350) ★★
The Houston Texans have surrendered the most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs, and Cleveland Browns rusher Nick Chubb has scored multiple touchdowns in a game three times this season. Houston also ranks 30th in rush defense DVOA and grades 31st in run defense per PFF.
FanDuel is offering the best odds for this two-touchdown prop, and I’d also complement it with a prebuilt parlary of an anytime Chubb touchdown and the Browns to win at +110 odds. The anytime Chubb touchdown-moneyline parlay is +100 though both DraftKings and PointsBet, so again FanDuel is the spot to double-down on a big day for the fifth-year back.
First TD Scorer Pick
- Evan Engram first TD scorer (+2000 via FanDuel) ★
Engram first TD scorer (+2000) ★
This recommendation is truly in flier territory. Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram has a single touchdown and just three red-zone targets all season. Still, he’s the top receiving tight end for the Jags, and the Detroit Lions have been susceptible to the position all season.
Detroit ranks 10th last in defensive DVOA to opposing tight ends while allowing the third-most touchdowns and a healthy 8.6 yards per target. It’s also encouraging that this game has the second-highest Over/Under total of the week.
Add the improved play of Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence to the long odds FanDuel is offering, and I’m interested in finding ways to target Engram in touchdown markets. Lawrence has six touchdown passes to go along with a 76.9 completion percentage and an improved 7.6 yards per attempt across his past three games.
PointsBet and FanDuel are both listing Engram at +320 for an anytime touchdown, so this is another opportunity to place both wagers for added insurance. With that in mind, I wouldn’t fault anyone for pivoting and only targeting Engram in the anytime TD market.
You’ll definitely want to steer clear of placing either wager at Caesars. Engram is a short +1100 to score the first touchdown and +265 to score an anytime touchdown during Sunday’s game.
Where to Bet on NFL Touchdown Prop Picks
Week 13 NFL touchdown prop picks made 12/2/2022 at 1 p.m. ET.
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