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Broncos vs. Ravens Picks, Predictions Week 13: Can Wilson Continue Success as Underdog?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 4, 2022 5:05 AM EST • 2 min 49 sec read.

Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens warms up prior to the game against the New York Giants, and we offer our top Dolphins vs. Ravens player props based on the best NFL odds.
Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens warms up prior to the game against the New York Giants. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images via AFP.

The Baltimore Ravens enter Week 13's home date with the Denver Broncos in first place in the AFC North. Below, we break down the betting angles with our Broncos-Ravens NFL picks based on the top odds.

Denver (3-8) has the second-fewest wins of any AFC team and has lost seven of eight games since starting the season 2-1. Denver has not won a game in North America (it beat the Jaguars in London) since Week 3.

Baltimore (7-4) had a four-game winning streak snapped in heartbreaking fashion last week. The Ravens have now lost three games this season when leading by multiple scores in the fourth quarter (tied for the most in NFL history). Their loss to the Jaguars was their first defeat this season to a team with fewer than seven wins, as their previous ones came against the Dolphins, Bills, and Giants.

Here are our top picks for Week 13 NFL matchup between the Broncos and Ravens (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 13!

Broncos vs. Ravens Game Info

Date: Sunday, Dec. 4, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Weather: 46 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, 7-mph W wind

Broncos vs. Ravens Odds

Broncos vs. Ravens Odds Analysis

The point spread has moved slightly in Baltimore’s favor from an opening line of -8 to -8.5. Early bettors have been overwhelmingly supporting the favorites, with 94% of the tickets and cash on their side.

All sportsbooks are currently in unison with the 38.5-point total, though some had dipped to 38 earlier in the week. There has been excellent two-way action, with 48% of the bets and 53% of the handle backing the Under.

Broncos vs. Ravens Picks

  • Spread: Broncos +8.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Over/Under: Under 38.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
  • Prop bet: Longest touchdown: Ravens (-175 via DraftKings)

Broncos vs. Ravens ATS Pick

Broncos +8.5 (-110) ★★★★

Despite how bad Denver’s offense has been to this point, this number seems a tad high to lay with a Baltimore team that may again be without offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley and safety Kyle Hamilton (both listed as questionable).

Russell Wilson has been at least a touchdown underdog four times in his career, and his teams have covered the spread on all four occasions. He is 33-19-2 against the spread in his career as an underdog, while Lamar Jackson has lost four times outright as a favorite of seven or more points. In addition, Baltimore has yet to win and cover a home game in eight consecutive tries.

Baltimore has the league’s third-best point differential (plus-86) through the first three quarters. But even if it races out to a big lead, there is always a strong possibility of a backdoor cover, as the Ravens’ minus-38 fourth-quarter point differential is second-worst in the league.

In Baltimore’s four losses, it has allowed 63 points and 539 total yards in the fourth quarter, and its 9.8 points per game allowed in the fourth quarter is the worst in the league.

As Broncos backers, we have our choice between BetMGM and DraftKings, which both offer +8.5 with standard -110 vig.

Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.

Broncos vs. Ravens O/U Pick

Under 38.5 (-107) ★★★★

If the Broncos are to be competitive in this game, it is not likely to be as part of a shootout. Denver has averaged 12.0 points during a three-game losing streak and is coming off scoring 10 or fewer points for the fourth time this season.

Denver has scored or reached the end zone on 22.7% of its drives (worst in the league) and is the only team to punt on more than half of its possessions, according to Sharp Football Analysis.

When Broncos games go Under the projected total, they go Under by a wide margin, as their games are cumulatively 110.5 points below the projected total, by far the biggest difference of any team.

Broncos vs. Ravens Prop Pick

Longest touchdown: Ravens (-175) ★★★★

Considering Wilson has thrown just one touchdown pass or fewer in nine of his 10 starts, it is unlikely that Denver’s offense will come up with many explosive plays or long scores. On the other hand, Baltimore’s DeSean Jackson has just three catches in limited time but has already produced a 30-yard-per-reception average, bringing a big-play element to the Ravens' offense.

In addition, DraftKings has Denver’s O/U of touchdowns juiced to the Under at 1.5, while Baltimore’s is juiced to the Over at 2.5, so this prop is worth the -175 juice on those sheer odds alone.

Where to Bet on Broncos-Ravens Picks

Best NFL Betting Sites:

Broncos-Ravens picks made 12/1/2022 at 6:15 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.