Jaguars vs. Lions Picks, Predictions Week 13: Can Jacksonville Earn Rare Road Victory?
The Detroit Lions host the Jacksonville Jaguars at Ford Field in Week 13 as the second game of a three-game home stand. Check out our Jaguars-Lions NFL picks based on the top odds.
Jacksonville (4-7) has a chance to earn back-to-back victories for the second time this season after last week’s come-from-behind win over the Baltimore Ravens.
Meanwhile, Detroit (4-7) had a three-game winning streak snapped with a narrow 28-25 home loss against the Buffalo Bills, which was the Lions’ sixth consecutive loss on Thanksgiving.
Here are our Jaguars-Lions NFL picks for Week 13 (odds via PointsBet and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 13!
Jaguars vs. Lions Game Info
Date: Sunday,
Dec. 4, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Weather: Indoors
Jaguars vs. Lions Odds
Jaguars vs. Lions Odds Analysis
It is rare when spreads jump the fence at all, and even more rare when it jumps twice, as this Jaguars-Lions spread has at multiple sportsbooks. This spread has been highly volatile all week, given the wild betting splits, as Detroit has attracted 74% of the point spread tickets but just 37% of the cash.
The total has held firm at 51.5 points all week, despite 88% of the tickets and 93% of the handle coming in support of the Over.
Jaguars vs. Lions Picks
- Moneyline: Jaguars (-108 via FanDuel)
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
- Prop bet: Zay Jones Over receiving yards (Off)
Jaguars vs. Lions ML Pick
Jaguars (-108) ★★★★
Trevor Lawrence has six touchdowns to no interceptions in his last three games and is coming off his second career game with 300-plus passing yards and three passing touchdowns. He stepped up his play considerably when his team needed it last week, as Lawrence had a fourth quarter for the ages.
Over the last 15 minutes against Baltimore, Lawrence completed 15 of 19 passes for 173 yards and two touchdowns. The yardage and touchdowns were career highs in any quarter.
Jacksonville is a putrid 1-21 straight-up in its last 22 road games. Still, Detroit is overvalued after taking Buffalo to the wire in a nationally televised game last week. The Lions benefitted from the Bills’ maniacal schedule (two games in five days amid a blizzard in Buffalo) and will meet their match against a Jaguars team that has already won four games for the first time since 2019.
One can get +1 on the point spread, but we will opt for the better value by taking the Jaguars to win outright and placing our wager at FanDuel, which has the lowest price for this wager.
Jaguars vs. Lions O/U Pick
Over 51.5 (-107) ★★
Jacksonville is the only team in the league with a losing record that also has a positive point differential (plus-12). That statistic speaks to the Jaguars’ explosiveness, as they have averaged more than 29 points per game in their four victories. They now get a matchup with a Lions defense that has allowed more than 30 points per game in their six home games. Detroit is the league’s 29th-ranked pass defense (allowing 259.9 yards per game), which bodes well for Lawrence’s chances for another big game.
On the other side, Jacksonville’s defense has allowed more than 130 yards per game on the ground over the last three weeks, and one that entered last week allowing more than 10 more points per game on the road than at home.
With all sportsbooks offering the same 51.5-point total, PointsBet stands out because of its minimal -107 juice.
Jaguars vs. Lions Prop Pick
Jones Over receiving yards (Off) ★★★
Zay Jones has quickly become one of Lawrence’s favorite targets, seeing 24 passes his way over the last two games. In the Ravens game alone, 37.8% of Lawrence’s passes went Jones’ way, and he turned that production into 11 catches for 145 yards.
When Lawrence looks Jones’ way, it is often a positive result, as 27 of Jones’ last 32 targets have resulted in completions. In what we project to be a high-scoring game, we have confidence that Jones will continue to see a bulk of Jacksonville’s passing game volume.
Where to Bet on Jaguars-Lions Picks
Jaguars-Lions picks made 12/1/2022 at 6:19 a.m. ET.
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