Steelers vs. Falcons Picks, Predictions Week 13: Atlanta Still Alive in NFC Playoff Hunt
The Atlanta Falcons are 4-2 at home this season but are listed as the underdogs against the 4-7 Pittsburgh Steelers this week. Check out our Steelers-Falcons NFL picks based on the top odds.
Even after losing three of their last four games to fall to 5-7 on the year, the Falcons find themselves just a half-game out of first place in the NFC South.
Atlanta could vault into the division lead with a win this week over the Steelers, who won Monday in Indianapolis but have not strung together consecutive victories this season.
Here are our Steelers-Falcons NFL picks and predictions for Week 13 (odds via PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 13!
Steelers vs. Falcons Game Info
Date: Sunday,
Dec. 4, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Mercedez-Benz Stadium,
Atlanta, GA
Weather: 63 F, 0% chance of
precipitation, 2-mph winds
Steelers vs. Falcons Odds
Steelers vs. Falcons Odds Analysis
Atlanta was initially a 1-point favorite but the line has flipped toward Pittsburgh as small road chalk, with most sportsbooks offering the Steelers -1.
Early interest in the total moved the number up to as high as 44 during the week, but it dropped back to the 42 opener by Thursday morning.
Pittsburgh and the Under have both accounted for more than 75% of the handle, although 74% of early action on the total supported the Over.
Steelers vs. Falcons Picks
- Spread: Falcons +1 (-107 via PointsBet)
- Over/Under: Over 42 (-107 via PointsBet)
- Prop bet: Falcons -1.5 third quarter (+145 via DraftKings)
Steelers vs. Falcons ATS Pick
Falcons +1 (-107) ★★★
This is a huge game for the Falcons, who are still very much in the NFC playoff race despite their 5-7 record. Atlanta enters Week 13 half a game behind the 5-6 Buccaneers for the NFC South lead, and four of the Falcons’ remaining five games come against teams with losing records.
That includes this matchup with the Steelers, who are coming off a 24-17 victory at Indianapolis but haven’t won consecutive games yet this season. Pittsburgh also has to travel on a short week following that Monday night victory over the Colts, and the Steelers could be without starting running back Najee Harris after he left Monday’s contest with an abdomen injury.
The Falcons have won four of their six games at home this year, and those two losses came by a combined margin of four points. Atlanta’s tendency to play close games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is why we opted for the +1, but PointsBet and BetRivers are also dealing Falcons +100 on the Moneyline if you’d prefer a shot at even odds.
Steelers vs. Falcons O/U Pick
Over 42 (-110) ★★★★
Even without a strong passing game, the Falcons have consistently put points on the board this season at home. Atlanta has scored at least 23 points in five of its six as a host, including 27 in its last home game vs. the Bears. Losing Kyle Pitts for the season (knee surgery) isn’t ideal, but the Falcons haven’t featured their young tight end much this year, relying instead on a running attack that ranks fourth in the league with 160 yards per game.
Pittsburgh’s offense is starting to find its footing under rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, scoring at least 20 points in each of its last three contests. One reason is improved production from the running game, which has gained at least 100 yards on the ground in four straight and should have another solid showing against a Falcons front that gave up 176 rushing yards last week in Washington.
Steelers vs. Falcons Prop Pick
Falcons -1.5 third quarter (+145) ★★★
Judging by the Falcons’ recent performance coming out of halftime, head coach Arthur Smith and his staff are making some great adjustments. Atlanta has outscored opponents in the second half in seven of its last 11 overall, and the Falcons have also covered the third-quarter ML in six of their last seven at home.
Meanwhile, third quarters have been an issue lately for the Steelers. Pittsburgh led the Colts 16-3 at halftime Monday night before getting outscored 14-0 in the third quarter to fall behind by a point, and they haven’t scored a third-quarter touchdown since a Week 4 loss to the Jets.
Where to Bet on Steelers-Falcons Picks
Steelers-Falcons picks made 12/1/2022 at 9:15 a.m. ET.
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