NFL Upset Picks, Predictions: Top Underdog Picks for Week 13
Seven of the 15 games on the Week 13 slate have point spreads of a field goal or shorter, which means this could be a popular week for underdogs to bark. We are back to highlight the top upset picks for the NFL's Week 13 action.
There have been just five instances dating back to Week 9 where the home team has been an underdog in a divisional game. However, those teams are 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread. There are as many instances (five) in Week 13 where the favorite is the road team in a divisional game as there have been for the last four weeks, and we have identified two of these plays among our top three most likely upsets.
Here are our top NFL upset picks for Week 13 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook).
NFL Upset Picks for Week 13
NFL Week 13 Underdog Predictions
Bears (+135) vs. Packers
Aaron Rodgers has owned the Chicago Bears in his career (23-5) and has even told the Soldier Field faithful so in the past. However, it's unlikely Rodgers will play this week after leaving last week's Sunday night game with a rib injury. Thus, Chicago can take out nearly two decades of frustration on Jordan Love, who would be making his second start in his 10th career game.
Chicago has lost eight of nine games since starting 2-1, largely because its defense allowed 34.6 points per game during a five-game losing streak. In addition, the Bears have allowed 27-plus points in five consecutive games for the first time since 1996-97. However, those issues should not surface as readily against Love, who has thrown just 80 career passes (and three interceptions) and will lead the 23rd-ranked scoring offense (19.6 ppg).
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Bengals (+120) vs. Chiefs
A Cincinnati Bengals win this week would be historic, as the Chiefs have won 26 consecutive games in November and December. However, Cincinnati is rolling with seven wins in nine games since an 0-2 start, and their latest win was most impressive, beating the Tennessee Titans 20-16 on the road without the services of offensive stars Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon.
In non-divisional games this season, Joe Burrow is 6-1 with 17 total touchdowns and zero interceptions. And entering last week, when Burrow's offensive line recorded a pass block win over the previous two seasons (sustained block for 2.5 seconds), Burrow ranks first in the NFL in completion percentage (72%), yards per attempt (9.4), first down percentage (41%) and passer rating (114.4), per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Cincinnati is 5-0 when allowing two or fewer sacks this season (allowed one against the Titans), and if the Bengals get Chase and Mixon back healthy, they are a great bet to end Kansas City's long winter-month winning streak.
Raiders (+108) vs. Chargers
It only took 11 games, but the 4-7 Las Vegas Raiders have finally won back-to-back games this season, albeit with touchdowns in overtime. Those victories should be confidence boosters for a team that lost six of its seven games by one possession.
Derek Carr is coming off his 23rd career game with three or more touchdown passes (first this season), and Josh Jacobs just set the franchise record for most rushing yards (229) and scrimmage yards (303) in a game. In addition, his 303 scrimmage yards are the most in a single game since Antonio Brown in 2015.
The Los Angeles Chargers have not been able to stop the run all season (rank 28th with 151.4 rushing yards per game allowed), so Las Vegas can ride Jacobs to another upset win. The Raiders often beat good teams, as they are 5-2 SU in their last seven games against teams with a winning record.
Where to Bet on NFL Upset Picks
NFL Week 13 upset picks made 11/29/2022 at 7:51 a.m. ET.
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