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Colts vs. Cowboys Picks, Predictions Week 13: Can Dallas Get Third Win?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 2 min 33 sec read.

Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys throws a pass as we share our best passing props for Week 11.
Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys throws a pass against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images via AFP.

The Dallas Cowboys will hope to stay within reach of the Philadelphia Eagles and the NFC East division title when they host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football. Check out our top Colts-Cowboys NFL picks.

Dallas (8-3) enters having won back-to-back games and is off to its best 11-game start since 2016. The Cowboys look to keep pace with the division leading Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) but need to avoid another letdown when facing the 4-7-1 Colts, as two of Dallas' three losses came against teams currently under .500.

Here are our best Colts-Cowboys Week 13 NFL picks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, PointsBet, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Colts vs. Cowboys same-game parlay and our best Sunday Night Football prop bets!

Colts vs. Cowboys Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Dec. 4, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC
  • Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
  • Weather: Indoors

Colts vs. Cowboys Odds

Colts vs. Cowboys Odds Analysis

Dallas opened as a -9.5 point home favorite Monday morning, but after Indianapolis' result from Monday night was known, the Cowboys shot up to -10.5. The Cowboys are overwhelmingly popular, attracting 86% of the bets and 91% of the cash.

The opening total of 43.5 points held firm at FanDuel but is now 44 or 44.5 at competing sportsbooks. 56% of the tickets and 65% of the handle is on the Over.

Colts vs. Cowboys Picks

  • Spread: Colts +10.5 (-110 via Caesars) ★★
  • Over/Under: Under 44.5 (-107 via PointsBet) ★★
  • Player prop: Dak Prescott Under 249.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★★

Check out our Ezekiel Elliott-Tony Pollard prop picks!

Colts vs. Cowboys ATS Pick

Colts +10.5 (-110) ★★

Indianapolis overcame two turnovers and allowed the Pittsburgh Steelers to convert 7-of-14 third-down opportunities last week, yet still held a one-point lead entering the fourth quarter. The Colts are undervalued in this matchup because of head coach Jeff Saturday's poor late-game clock management. 

The Colts averaged 14.7 points per game through their first nine contests, had a designed rush percentage of 33%, and ran for 86.7 yards per game with three rushing touchdowns. However, in Saturday's first two games, Indy averaged 20.5 PPG, had a designed rush percentage of 45%, and rushed for 153 YPG with three rushing scores.

The Colts ran for 4.4 yards per carry against the Steelers as well, and if they stay close, they can use a rejuvenated ground game to keep the high-powered Cowboys' offense off the field.

Caesars is one of the only sportsbooks where you get 10 points with the hook on the underdogs while not having to pay more in juice.

Colts vs. Cowboys O/U Pick

Under 44.5 (-107) ★★

If the Colts cover this big number, isn't likely to come in a shootout, as they've scored 1.41 points per drive this season (ranks 31st). In addition, per Sharp Football Analysis, 79% of Indianapolis' passes came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (the NFL's highest), as its offense is based on methodical drives.

By contrast, Dallas has a +31 sack differential (the league highest). Any play that results in a sack severely hampers the Colts' ability to move the chains, given they can't make big plays.

PointsBet is the place for Under backers, as its number is the highest around while also offering bettors a better price than the standard -110 odds.

Colts vs. Cowboys Prop Pick

Prescott Under 249.5 passing yards (-115) ★★★★

From a fantasy football perspective, the Colts are a stingy defense, allowing 15 PPG to quarterbacks over the last four weeks. While Dallas' offense scored 27.5 offensive PPG with quarterback Dak Prescott (a league second), the team also uses the run game more. Running back Tony Pollard has 20+ touches in three consecutive games, and healthy RB Ezekiel Elliott gets touches, too. 

The Under cashed in eight of the Colts' previous nine road games, a trend that suggests the Cowboys' offensive ceiling is lowered in this matchup.

Prescott's O/U is 248.5 yards at BetMGM, but it's not worth the extra juice (-120) for just one more yard's worth of value with this wager.

Where to Bet on Colts vs. Cowboys Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Colts-Cowboys picks made 12/3/2022 at 8:02 a.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.