Ezekiel Elliott-Tony Pollard Prop Picks, Predictions: Which Dallas RB Should You Back Sunday Night?
The dynamic Dallas Cowboys backfield duo get set to face the Indianapolis Colts Sunday night. Read on for our top Elliott-Pollard prop picks.
The Cowboys have thrived on the ground behind running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Powell this season, ranking an NFL seventh in rushing yards per game. Which direction will the Cowboys' run game flow Sunday night?
Here are our best Elliott-Pollard Sunday Night football prop picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-5 star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 13!
Colts vs. Cowboys Odds
Elliott-Pollard Prop Picks
- Ezekiel Elliott Over 52.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ★★★
- Tony Pollard longest reception Over 10.5 yards (-108 via FanDuel) ★★★★
- Ezekiel Elliott any time touchdown scorer (+110 via FanDuel) ★★★★
Elliott-Pollard Prop Predictions
Elliott Over 52.5 rushing yards (-114) ★★★
Indianapolis ranks an NFL 11th in Rush Defense DVOA this season. But favored by 10.5 points over the Colts, the Cowboys should commit to the ground game Sunday night.
Dallas' rushing attack averages 139.2 rushing YPG. When healthy, Elliott draws the bulk of the running plays. He’s seen 15+ carries in seven of nine games this year. Though Elliott hasn’t been nearly as efficient as Pollard, he’s the better value in the rushing props market given his expected workload and more attainable rushing line.
While Pollard’s FanDuel line sits at O/U 65.5 rushing yards (-114), Zeke’s is 52.5 (-114). Elliott had 52 or more rushing yards in seven of nine matchups in 2022. DraftKings doesn’t offer prop lines in the standard -110 range; given the risk associated with Zeke’s inefficiency, avoid DraftKings’ 59.5-yard line with +110 odds.
Pollard longest reception Over 10.5 yards (-108) ★★★★
During Elliott’s absence, Pollard proved his mettle to those who didn't believe he could physically handle a robust rushing workload. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, of course, sees things another way. ‘We go as Zeke goes’, etc.
The team’s inclination to feed Zeke is a limiting factor that could tank an Over bet on Pollard’s rushing yardage. But where Pollard makes an impact is in the receiving game. He’s enjoyed a reception longer than 10.5 yards in three of his past five matchups, including an impressive 68-yard catch-and-run against Minnesota two weeks ago.
If the Cowboys want to feature Elliott as their primary between-the-tackles runner, so be it. But as long as Dallas commits to giving Pollard a handful of receiving opportunities, his explosiveness in space should do the rest. FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a Pollard longest reception prop, so bet it there at -108o odds.
Elliott anytime touchdown scorer (+110) ★★★★
Across the board, Pollard is more likely to score a touchdown than Elliott Sunday night. Though Pollard can find the end zone through the air, the odds distribution is still surprising. Pollard didn't score in the Cowboys' Thanksgiving Day win over the New York Giants and hasn’t scored on the ground since Elliott returned to the lineup two weeks ago.
Elliott, meanwhile, scored in both games since his return from injury, totaling three rushing touchdowns. Zeke remains the Cowboys’ preferred goal-line back--and for good reason. Elliott scored on five of seven rushing attempts inside the opponent’s five-yard line this season, ranking behind only Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry in that category (min. 5 attempts).
The Colts allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this year. As he's the more likely TD scorer from the backfield, Elliott is a strong value at the +110 odds FanDuel offers. The any time touchdown scorer odds for Zeke aren’t as strong at DraftKings (+100) or BetMGM (-105).
Where to Bet on Elliott-Pollard Prop Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Elliott-Pollard prop picks made 12/3/2022 at 3:33 p.m. ET.
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