The Dallas Cowboys are building their case as Super Bowl contenders. Can the Indianapolis Colts stop this train on Sunday night? Here are our Week 13 Colts-Cowboys same-game parlay NFL picks based on the top odds.
The scuffling Colts are going into the belly of the beast this week, heading to Dallas as the Cowboys appear to be putting it all together during the second half of the season.
Here are my same-game parlay picks for the Week 13 Sunday night matchup between the Colts and Cowboys (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Colts vs. Cowboys Odds
- Under 44.5 (-110)
- Ezekiel Elliott anytime touchdown (+120)
- Tony Pollard Over 14.5 receiving yards (-110)
Combined Odds: +856
Under 44.5 (-110) ★★★★
The Colts haven’t been involved in many high-scoring games this season. Ten of 12 Colts games have finished below this total and only once has Indianapolis played a game all season that featured more than 45 total points.
The average total points in Colts games this season is 36.1. Though the Cowboys have the ability to handle the heavy lifting for this total on their own, you might be surprised to learn that eight of their 12 games this season have also fallen below this total.
Colts games have gone 3-9 on Overs, while Dallas games have gone 5-6 on Overs. Given these trends, the total being in the mid-40s instead of the low-40s surprises me. There’s no value difference between DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel for this leg of the parlay, as both feature the total at 44.5 with standard -110 odds.
Tony Pollard has had more juice than Ezekiel Elliott out of the Dallas backfield this season, with the former averaging 5.6 yards per carry compared to the latter’s 4.1. But there has been one area of the field where the Cowboys have rightfully remained committed to Zeke: on the goal line.
Zeke has converted for touchdowns on five of his seven rushing attempts inside the five-yard line this season. That’s Derrick Henry-territory in terms of goal-line efficiency. Elliott has cashed this prop in the last two weeks since returning from injury, scoring three touchdowns in total.
The Colts have a top-half rush defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed 11 rushing touchdowns on the season, leaving plenty of room for the Cowboys to attack on the ground in the red zone.
DraftKings lists Zeke at even-money odds to find paydirt this week. His FanDuel odds are juicer at a surprising +120.
Pollard Over 14.5 receiving yards (-110) ★★★★
Though Zeke is the go-to guy at the goal line, Pollard is the pass-catching running back in this dynamic duo. The Colts have allowed an opposing running back to clear this receiving total eight times this season, frequently allowing running backs to break receptions of 10 or more yards.
Pollard has cleared this total through the air in only four games this season, but he’s accrued 13 or more receiving yards in six games. He’s also got recency on his side as Pollard has gone for 13-plus receiving yards in four of his past five games. Pollard’s ability in space means he can clear this total on any given reception; with six targets in two of the past three weeks, I like Pollard to get there this week.
With this play as the final leg, the combined odds of our parlay at FanDuel are pretty juicy at +856. To push the parlay beyond those odds at DraftKings, you’d have to choose Pollard’s alternate line of 20-plus receiving yards. We’re more comfortable with the 14.5-yard total, so we’ll stick with FanDuel for the parlay.
Where to Bet Colts-Cowboys Same-Game Parlay Picks
Colts-Cowboys same-game parlay picks made on 12/4/2022 at 1:22 p.m. ET