NFL Best Bets for Week 6: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

Nine of the remaining 14 games on this week’s NFL slate have spreads of 4.5 or fewer points, and I analyze a few of those matchups with my NFL best bets for Week 6.

My NFL picks continue to buy into one of the league’s most surprising teams, and expects yet another big day from the league’s leading wide receiver. It all adds to our NFL predictions for Week 6.

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 6

NFL best bets made Friday; odds subject to change.

• Colts -6.5 alternate spread (-130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Seahawks ML (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• 49ers-Buccaneers Over 47.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Puka Nacua anytime touchdown scorer (-129 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• J.K. Dobbins longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐴 Colts -6.5 (-130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Arizona Cardinals have lost three consecutive games in heartbreaking fashion, all on last-second field goals. It will be interesting to see how they pick themselves up from that, and if there are any effects of head coach Jonathan Gannon’s fine for how he dealt with running back Emari Demercado for his mental blunder last week.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has shot up the MVP odds leaderboard. Jones is the signal-caller for an offense that has scored on 65% of its drives, the best by a team through five games in the last 45 years.

I missed out on the best value earlier in the week when this line was at -6.5 across the market. It has since reached the key number of seven, so I am opting for the relatively cheap alternate spread and buying a half-point at BetMGM. The new -130 price at 56.52% implied odds would net $7.69 in profits if Indianapolis wins by at least a touchdown.

🟢 Seahawks ML (-104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Seattle Seahawks did not initially make this week’s NFL upset predictions column, but the curiously low point spread, despite the Jacksonville Jaguars coming off a Monday Night Football win against the Kansas City Chiefs, has me intrigued that oddsmakers know the underdogs are the right side.

The Jaguars' defense ranks fifth in Total QBR, and have allowed 3.4 yards per rush and a 2-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio to opposing offenses in 12 personnel. But the Seahawks' offense will challenge Jacksonville’s defense in that regard in ways no one else has, as they rank second in Total QBR with a 3-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 6.0 yards per rush in that split.

The Seahawks also rank fourth in Pass Rush Win Rate. Meanwhile, I expect regression from Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who was 4-for-6 for 91 yards with an interception, three sacks, and two rushing touchdowns in the 12 plays he faced pressure last week.

FanDuel is the only best sports betting app where one can back Seattle’s moneyline at less than -105 and 51.22% implied odds. Through the -104 price, a $10 wager would return $9.62 in profits if the Seahawks pull the upset.

⬆️ 49ers-Buccaneers Over 47.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers became the first team since the 1970 merger with their first four wins coming on go-ahead scores in the final minute of the fourth quarter. Since every one of their games seems to come down to the wire, I am eschewing the point spread and looking more to the total as the best NFL prediction for this game.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield went an impressive 9-for-11 for 227 yards and two touchdowns on passes at least 10 yards downfield against a tough Seahawks defense last week. He also finished with a season-high 7.3 yards per pass and the fourth-best Offensive Efficiency in any game this season.

Mayfield’s ability to carve up Seattle’s zone defense did not go unnoticed. Against zone last week, he was 21-for-25 for 317 yards, which were his second-most yards in that split in his career. He should challenge a 49ers defense with deep throws, as he is tied for the league lead with seven passing touchdowns of 10-plus air yards.

These days it is often a mystery who will suit up on offense for San Francisco. But we know we can trust backup quarterback Mac Jones, as he has a 6-1 TD-INT ratio and is 3-0 as a starter. And his 342 passing yards last week were his second-most in a game in his career, despite missing two of his best playmakers (Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings).

FanDuel is the only top sports betting site charging less than the standard -110 juice and 52.38% implied odds to back the Over. Its -108 odds offer the best return, as bettors stand to net $9.26 on a winning $10 wager if the Over cashes.

💰 Best NFL player prop bets for Week 6

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥 Puka Nacua anytime touchdown scorer (-129) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua not only leads the league with 588 receiving yards, but he is also first in target rate (39.1%) among wide receivers with at least 100 routes run, second in yards per route (3.7), second in completed air yards per route (2.4), first in yards after the catch (208), and first in receptions over expectation (8.4).

Nacua now faces a Baltimore Ravens defense that allowed 44 points last week, their most allowed at home under head coach John Harbaugh. And Baltimore’s 35.4 points per game allowed this season are the most through five games by a playoff team from the previous season.

These -129 odds at a 56.33% implied probability are great value opposing a defense whose 13 passing touchdowns allowed are the most through five games in Ravens franchise history. If Nacua scores a touchdown, my $10 wager through Caesars’ -129 odds would return $7.75 in profits.

⬆️ J.K. Dobbins longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Denver Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins leads the backfield in snaps, carries, and goal-line carries. He has taken advantage of those numerous opportunities, also leading the NFL in explosive runs.

Dobbins heads overseas to London to take on a New York Jets defense that has allowed the seventh-most yards to running backs. New York also has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game overall, and either allowed 100-plus rushing yards or a rushing touchdown to running backs in each game.

Backing Dobbins’ longest rush at -115 odds (carrying a 53.49% implied probability) is a better value than wagering on his -130 anytime touchdown odds at the low end of the market. If Dobbins breaks off at least one 16-yard run for the sixth consecutive game, my $10 wager through DraftKings’ -115 odds would net $8.70 in profits.