Bengals vs. Chiefs Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 2
The Cincinnati Bengals are among the few teams that have succeeded against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes era as the two AFC juggernauts prepare for their sixth head-to-head meeting since 2022.
The Bengals were the biggest moneyline favorites in Week 1, but that did not matter to the New England Patriots, who pulled off a 16-10 road upset.
The Bengals are in serious jeopardy of falling to 0-2 when they face the Super Bowl odds favorites at Arrowhead Stadium, and our Bengals vs. Chiefs prediction follows that narrative.
While Joe Burrow is 3-1 head-to-head against Mahomes, the Chiefs have looked way better to start the season while also entering the contest with a notable rest advantage.
Sunday's Bengals vs. Chiefs contest (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) is one piece of a multi-layered NFL Week 2 predictions.
Best Bengals vs. Chiefs picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Chiefs -5.5 (-115 via Caesars) vs. Bengals ⭐⭐⭐
- Ja’Marr Chase Over 6.5 receptions (-108 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bengals vs. Chiefs against the spread prediction: Week 2
Chiefs to cover the spread: -5.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
Bengals vs. Chiefs opening odds:
- Bengals: +6 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Chiefs: -6 (-110 via BetMGM)
Cincinnati has started slow in recent years, as it is now 1-8 in Weeks 1 and 2 since drafting Burrow in 2020.
Meanwhile, Mahomes has won 16 of his 20 career September games (his most profitable month in terms of moneyline odds), and I expect those trends to continue while Kansas City covers the substantial spread.
Is Joe Burrow healthy?
The Bengals totaled 224 yards in last week’s loss to the Patriots, the fifth-fewest in a game started by Burrow.
Week 1 was Burrow’s first game action after missing the final seven games of last season with a wrist injury, and he completed just four of eight passes for 60 yards on passes at least five yards downfield versus New England.
Through the first five games of a season in his career (prior to this year’s season opener), Burrow is 8-11-1 with a 45 Total QBR, averaging 6.7 yards per attempt and posting a 1.8 TD-INT ratio.
However, after the first five games, he's a combined 21-11, posting a 63 Total QBR, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt, and a 3.3 TD-INT ratio.
Bengals' defense is a liability
Cincinnati’s defense last year ranked 26th or worse in defensive efficiency (per ESPN Analytics), opponents passing yards per game, and opponents rushing yards per game.
And while it only allowed 16 points in Week 1, it was the 12th time it allowed 170-plus rushing yards since 2020, going 2-9-1 in those games.
The lookahead line for this game in mid-June was Chiefs -3.5, so this is quite the line movement after just one week of results.
However, the lookahead line did not factor in Tee Higgins’ hamstring injury or the distraction Ja’Marr Chase’s contract situation has caused.
Making this wager at Caesars is a no-brainer as our other best sports betting sites are a half-point higher at -6, and a $10 wager at the -115 odds would pay $18.70.
Best odds: -115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Bengals vs. Chiefs prop pick for Week 2
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Ja’Marr Chase Over 6.5 receptions ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Based on ESPN insider Adam Schefter’s comments on the “Pat McAfee Show,” there is pessimism surrounding Tee Higgins’ chances of suiting up Sunday.
If he does not, Chase will likely be peppered with targets.
Against the Patriots, Chase caught all six of his targets while averaging 10.3 yards per target and producing a 50% first down percentage. When Burrow targeted other receivers, he completed 15-of-23 passes for 4.4 yards per target and a 27% first-down percentage.
Look for Burrow to consistently hone in on his top receiving option, especially since one of the best cover cornerbacks in the league, L’Jarius Sneed, is no longer with Kansas City.
I was tempted to back the Over on Chase’s 71.5 receiving yard total, but Burrow’s poor downfield passing numbers scared me off.
Chase has as high as a 53.49% implied probability to record seven or more catches based on bet365’s -115 odds, so I am taking advantage of Caesars’ lower price, where a winning $10 wager would return a $9.26 profit.
Best odds: -108 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.92%
Bengals vs. Chiefs odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Bengals vs. Chiefs game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 15
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 86 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph E
- Favorite: Chiefs (-250 via BetMGM)
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