Baker Mayfield TNF Player Prop Bets: Touchdown Picks & Odds
Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to take on the Atlanta Falcons for a key Thursday Night Football matchup. Both teams sit among the mid-tier contenders in the Super Bowl odds.
The 3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are road underdogs by the latest Thursday Night Football odds. As they try to spring the upset, I take a look at the best Baker Mayfield TNF player prop bets for the matchup.
Our Mike Spector thinks Mayfield's squad will put up a good fight in his Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction. In fact, they'll be so competive that he also likes them as part of his Week 5 NFL upset picks.
Mayfield is second in the league with eight passing touchdowns this season. He’s only thrown two interceptions, and he sits sixth leaguewide after logging 984 passing yards. How will he fare in tonight’s game against his division rival?
Baker Mayfield prop predictions for Thursday Night Football
- Baker Mayfield touchdown pick: Over 1.5 touchdown passes (+112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Baker Mayfield Under 242.5 passing yards (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 interceptions (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Thursday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Baker Mayfield touchdown pick vs. Falcons
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+112) ⭐⭐⭐
Mayfield has thrown eight touchdown passes this season, but those plays have not been evenly dispersed over four games. He threw four touchdown passes in Week 1. He’s thrown one touchdown pass in two of his three games since.
The signal-caller threw three touchdown passes in two meetings against the Falcons last season. This truly is a 50/50 bet.
The Falcons have allowed just three passing touchdowns this campaign, as they’ve held many teams to field goals. But the Bucs boast a red-zone success rate of 60%. Mayfield will flip the script on the Falcons tonight.
Four of our best sports betting sites are listing the Over with a price of +100. FanDuel is the obvious place to make this play then.
Even if you don’t love the Over for this prop, don’t play the Under. The prices are too steep (-146 at FanDuel), and there's no value in the play.
Best odds: +112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 47.17%
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Baker Mayfield player props
NFL picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Baker Mayfield Under 242.5 passing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
When I wrote about this prop earlier in the week in my Buccaneers vs. Falcons TNF prop bets, the highest total available was 238.5. You can always count on the public to bet up a hot quarterback in an island game.
The Falcons are only allowing 191.0 passing yards per game this season. Despite how good Mayfield has been, most of his production has come in two games. Those two contests also happen to be against two of the league's worst secondaries.
Mayfield has thrown for under 200 yards in two outings. The Falcons haven’t allowed a quarterback to throw for 240-plus yards this season.
The total for this prop ranges from 238.5 to 242.5. Expect it to keep going up, but there’s no reason to wait.
The Falcons are tested, and they’re going to keep Mayfield in check tonight, at least yardage wise.
However, Esten McLaren thinks Mayfield is positioned well to get into the end zone in his anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 interceptions (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
Mayfield threw 10 interceptions spread across nine games last season. While the interception total wasn’t all that worrying, him throwing one in more than half of his outings is concerning. He's off to a similar start now.
The veteran has chucked two interceptions, and those tosses came in two separate games. His errors also were against the two best defenses he’s faced this season. And in one of those games he threw an interception despite only putting up 19 pass attempts.
The Falcons have logged three interceptions this season. They capitalize on mistakes, and Mayfield makes plenty. To get this at -115 is great value for your NFL Week 5 predictions, especially when you consider some of our best sportsbooks are featuring the price at -123.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds
Thursday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
- How to watch: Prime Video
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Falcons (-120 via Caesars)
NFL betting odds pages
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