Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds & Score Picks: Big Ten Quarterfinal Best Bets
After years of dominance in March, No. 6 Purdue finds itself seeded as an underdog by rank in the Big Ten quarterfinal against No. 3 Michigan. The best March Madness betting sites don’t care, however, and are treating the Boilermakers as the favorites. We’ll dive into our Purdue vs. Michigan prediction, odds, and expert picks for Friday’s quarterfinal matchup.
This Big Ten tournament matchup between Purdue and Michigan will get underway at 9 p.m. ET in Indianapolis’ Gainbridge Fieldhouse. You can tune in via the Big Ten Network.
💰 Purdue vs. Michigan predictions, expert picks & best bets: Big Ten quarterfinal
Here are my best Purdue vs. Michigan predictions, expert picks, and best bets today for Big Ten quarterfinal with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. Be sure to check out the rest of our college basketball picks along with our guide on how to bet on college basketball.
- Against the spread pick: Purdue -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Michigan ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best player prop bet: Nimari Burnett over 9.5 points(-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Exact score prediction: Purdue 79, Michigan 70 (+18000 via DraftKings)
👉 Check out our latest March Madness projections with our SBR Bracketology ahead of the NCAA Tournament!
🏀 Purdue vs. Michigan ATS prediction & best player prop bet pick
Here's why I'm betting on Purdue to cover the spread (-2.5) while targeting Nimari Burnett Over 9.5 points as my best player prop bet pick for today:
✅ Purdue to cover the spread (-2.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While Purdue is seeded as an underdog tonight, the Boilermakers are the higher-ranked team in the AP Poll - and in most advanced metrics. When filtering for only games played since February 1, Purdue ranks 24th in BartTorvik’s power rating while Michigan ranks a lowly 53rd. Purdue’s second-ranked offense clears Michigan’s 132-ranked unit by a 19.8-point margin.
Purdue’s slow pace makes it vulnerable to an upset caused by shooting variance, but Michigan lacks the shooting skill needed to capitalize. The Wolverines rank 360th in 3-point shooting since Feb. 1 with a conversion rate of only 26.3%. Purdue ranks 15th over that sample with a rate of 40.5%.
Michigan may have a rest advantage in this spot, but the Wolverines are only 5-8 against the spread with such an advantage this year. Purdue is 8-5 against the spread with a rest disadvantage. Look for the Boilermakers to continue their run by winning and covering against the Wolverines tonight.
📊 Best odds: -110 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $9.09)
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🔥 Nimari Burnett over 9.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
We’re rolling with one member of the Wolverines to go Over his point total for today’s Purdue vs. Michigan player prop pick. Burnett has been a bright spot for Michigan beyond the arc, shooting 40.6% from long range this year. He is averaging a steady 9.9 points per game on the season and should see plenty of looks as Michigan tries to keep up with an efficient Purdue offense.
When these teams met in January, Michigan lost by 27 but got 11 points from Burnett on an inefficient 3-for-10 from the floor. When Michigan beat Purdue in February, he notched nine points on 3-for-7 from the floor - and all of those shots came from behind the arc. Look for the Wolverines to use him similarly tonight. The opportunities will be there for Burnett to soar over this number.
📊 Best odds: -105 via FanDuel (bet $10 to win $9.52)
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🎯 Expert Visitor vs. Host score prediction & AI projections
🔮 Expert score prediction: Purdue 79, Michigan 70
🤖 AI score prediction: Purdue 76, Michigan 71
🔮 Expert score prediction: Purdue 79, Michigan 70
With Purdue’s offense operating so efficiently, it’s hard to imagine Michigan keeping up. Still, Purdue’s weaknesses on the defensive end and slow pace make it very possible for the Wolverines to stick in this one until late.
I expect Michigan to keep this one close until the end, pointing to some value on the Over with the total at only 146.5. Purdue is 19-13 to the over this season and went 14-7 to the over in conference play. Michigan went 11-9 to the over in conference play as well.
If you can’t lock in a college basketball player prop today, get some exposure to the Over for this matchup!
📊 Best odds: +18000 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $1,800)
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🤖 AI score prediction: Purdue 76, Michigan 71
(Score prediction and analysis via ChatGPT - a large language model from OpenAI. While ChatGPT is not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, it can spot trends or insights that bettors might overlook.)
🖥️ AI predictions for Purdue vs. Michigan
Based on recent form and matchup data, the projected final score is Purdue 76, Michigan 71.
- Win probability: Purdue 58% | Michigan 42%
- Projected total points: 147
- Key takeaways:
- Purdue has the momentum: the Boilermakers have won three of their last four games, while Michigan has dropped three straight, struggling to find consistency
- Guard play could be the difference: Braden Smith (Purdue) has been elite as a playmaker, averaging 8.7 assists per game, and could exploit Michigan’s defensive lapses
- Close contest expected: Michigan previously defeated Purdue by just two points in their last meeting, suggesting this game could remain tight
🤔 Betting takeaway: ChatGPT's AI score prediction leans toward Purdue covering the spread (-2.5) and a total of Under 147.5 points.
📊 Live Purdue vs. Michigan odds & latest betting splits
Here are the latest odds for Purdue vs. Michigan, which update live in real time. You can also check out our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool for the latest college basketball odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your region.
🔢 Purdue vs. Michigan opening odds
Here's a look at the opening odds for Purdue vs. Michigan according to Caesars.
- Spread: Purdue -2.5 (-107) | Michigan +2.5 (-109)
- Moneyline: Purdue -139 | Michigan +119
- Over/Under: Over 147.5 (-110) | Under 147.5 (-110)
🏆 Who will win Purdue vs. Michigan?
As of Friday morning, Purdue is favored by 2.5 points to beat Michigan with moneyline odds of -145 at BetMGM, which suggests a 59.2% win probability for the Boilermakers. We're predicting a 79-70 win for Purdue as our final score projection.
So far, 58% of bettors have wagered against the spread on Purdue -2.5, while 71% of bettors expect the game to finish Over/Under the projected total of 147.5 points.
📺 How to watch Purdue vs. Michigan tonight
📅 Date: Friday, March 14
🕗 Time: 9 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)
📺 TV: BTN
💻 Streaming: BTN+
❓ Purdue vs. Michigan FAQs
Who's favored to win the Big Ten tournament?
There is no clear favorite to win the Big Ten conference tournament, but as of Friday morning, Michigan State (+300) and Maryland (+350) owned the best odds to do so.
Who is favored to win Purdue vs. Michigan?
As a -145 moneyline favorite, Purdue is favored to beat Michigan today with an implied probability of 59.2%.
What are the betting odds for Purdue vs. Michigan?
Per the latest Purdue vs. Michigan betting odds, the latest spread is Purdue -2.5: -110 | Michigan +2.5: -110 with a total of 147.5 points (Over: -110 | Under: -110).
What will be the final score of Purdue vs. Michigan?
We're predicting a final score of Purdue 79, Michigan 70 entering tonight's matchup at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
What time is Purdue vs. Michigan tonight?
Tonight’s Purdue vs. Michigan contest will tip off tonight at 9 p.m. ET.
⛹️ Best college basketball betting sites
Looking to bet on college basketball tonight? Here are our best March Madness betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best March Madness betting promos ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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