March Madness Trends, Predictions: One of These 11 Teams Will Win the NCAA Tournament
We're taking a look at historical March Madness trends to predict the winner of the NCAA Tournament and identify potential value bets based on the college basketball odds.
Every year, sixty-eight teams enter the March Madness bracket with wide eyes and aspirations of a potential title run. However, only a few truly have a legitimate shot at claiming the title. The list of teams capable of winning the NCAA Tournament is smaller than one might anticipate.
March Madness upset picks and Cinderella teams are a significant draw in the tournament's early rounds for fans, creating a legacy of chaos. However, the final chapter is often predictable as just 13 schools have combined to win the last 25 national titles. Many of them bear a striking resemblance to their fellow champions across this century.
The blueprint for success becomes clearer with each passing season, and we have some tips on how to fill out a March Madness bracket to help you along. Even last year's historic tournament produced a winner that fit neatly into decades of historical trends for previous winners in the KenPom era (since 1999).
We've weeded out the contenders from the pretenders to help with your March Madness predictions ahead of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Here's a look at the profile of previous champions to inform your college basketball picks for this year's bracket.
Use these trends to help with your entries into the best free bracket challenges.
March Madness pretenders
Let's start with the obvious: no team has ever won the NCAA Tournament seeded No. 8 or worse, and no team with a worse seed has even reached the championship round. With history as our compass, we can eliminate over half the field right away.
Here's a look at the March Madness odds for the remaining 32 teams, courtesy of BetMGM as of Selection Sunday:
| Team (seed) | Odds |
|---|---|
| UConn (1) | +400 |
| Purdue (1) | +600 |
| Houston (1) | +600 |
| Arizona (2) | +1200 |
| North Carolina (1) | +1300 |
| Tennessee (2) | +1500 |
| Auburn (4) | +1800 |
| Iowa State (2) | +1800 |
| Kentucky (3) | +2500 |
| Marquette (2) | +2500 |
| Duke (4) | +3000 |
| Creighton (3) | +3000 |
| Illinois (3) | +3000 |
| Alabama (4) | +3500 |
| Baylor (3) | +3500 |
| Kansas (4) | +4000 |
| Florida (7) | +5000 |
| Gonzaga (5) | +6000 |
| Saint Mary's (5) | +6600 |
| BYU (6) | +6600 |
| San Diego State (5) | +8000 |
| Wisconsin (5) | +8000 |
| Texas (7) | +10000 |
| FAU (8) | +10000 |
| Texas Tech (6) | +10000 |
| Mississippi State (8) | +10000 |
| South Carolina (6) | +10000 |
| Utah State (8) | +12500 |
| Washington State (7) | +15000 |
| Clemson (6) | +15000 |
| Nebraska (8) | +15000 |
| Dayton (7) | +15000 |
While having a top-eight seed is a virtual prerequisite for a deep run, an even bigger predictor for tournament success is adjusted efficiency margin, which tracks a team's scoring margin per 100 possession and adjusts for opponent.
Every national champion since 1999 has ranked in the top 25 in that metric entering the tournament. That's bad news for Florida (+5000), Texas (+10000), Mississippi State (+10000), FAU (+10000), South Carolina (+10000), Utah State (+12500), Nebraska (+15000), Dayton (+15000), Clemson (+15000), and Washington State (+15000) - all of which faced long odds to win, anyway.
What about wins and losses? That may seem too reductive, but no team has won the national title with more than 10 losses since Kansas pulled off its miracle run in 1988. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise, as all but one tournament winner since then has been a top-four seed and 23 of 34 champions were No. 1 seeds.
In this turbulent season, that spells an early exit for both Alabama (+3500) and Wisconsin (+8000), both of which won fewer than 70% of their games in the regular season. That simply won't cut it come tournament time.
They say defense wins championships, but 16 of the last 24 champions ranked in the top six in adjusted offensive efficiency, and all but one ranked in the top 21. The lone exception? 2014 UConn, which ranked 57th entering the tournament but rode an incredible run from star scorer Shabazz Napier, the No. 2 player in KenPom's Player of the Year standings.
North Carolina (+1300), Tennessee (+1500), and San Diego State (+8000) rank outside of the top 21 offensively but feature a top-10 player in this year's POTY rankings. That isn't the case for Iowa State (+1800), Kansas (+4000), Saint Mary's (+6600), and Texas Tech (+10000), which all lack a top-21 offense or a top-10 player on the roster.
And what about the other end of the court? Every champion since 1999 has ranked in the top 44 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 16 of them featured a top-20 unit. That's a bad sign for Kentucky (+2500), Illinois (+3000), Baylor (+3500), Gonzaga (+6000), and BYU (+6600), all of which check-in outside of the top 45 in defensive efficiency.
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Which teams can win March Madness in 2024?
So, now that we've eliminated most of the field, which teams are true contenders to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament?
Here's a look at the 11 teams remaining, including their best title odds from our best sports betting sites and where they rank nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjOE), adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjDE), and adjusted efficiency margin (AdjEM) heading into the tournament:
| Team (seed) | Best title odds | AdjOE | AdjDE | AdjEM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn (1) | +400 via BetMGM | 1st | 11th | 1st |
| Houston (1) | +600 via bet365 | 17th | 2nd | 2nd |
| Purdue (1) | +750 via Caesars | 4th | 21st | 3rd |
| Arizona (2) | +1400 via bet365 | 8th | 12th | 6th |
| North Carolina (1) | +1700 via FanDuel | 24th | 6th | 9th |
| Tennessee (2) | +1800 via bet365 | 29th | 3rd | 7th |
| Auburn (4) | +2200 via FanDuel | 10th | 4th | 4th |
| Marquette (2) | +3000 via Caesars | 21st | 19th | 12th |
| Creighton (3) | +3000 via Caesars | 12th | 24th | 11th |
| Duke (4) | +3500 via DraftKings | 7th | 26th | 8th |
| San Diego State (5) | +10000 via BetMGM | 62nd | 9th | 21st |
UConn Huskies (+400)
This won't come as a surprise to virtually anybody who's followed college basketball over the last five months. Two of our four experts - not including ChatGPT - picked the Huskies to repeat as champions in our March Madness bracket predictions. With the No. 1 ranked offense and overall net efficiency, it's easy to see why.
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Related: We asked ChatGPT to fill out a March Madness bracket, pick every NCAA Tournament game
Houston Cougars (+600)
The Cougars' offense was exposed in the Big 12 Tournament final, but this team's elite defense and tournament experience should prove valuable over the next three weeks. There's a reason this team was ranked No. 1 to close the regular season.
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Purdue Boilermakers (+750)
On paper, Purdue has the profile of a national champion behind star center Zach Edey - the runaway favorite by the closing Wooden Award odds - and a defense that checks into the top 25. Can the Boilermakers exorcise their tournament demons?
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Arizona Wildcats (+1400)
The Wildcats were denied a No. 1 seed after losing in the Pac-12 Tournament, but Arizona is one of just three teams with a top-12 offense and defense. If Caleb Love gets hot in this tournament, watch out.
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North Carolina Tar Heels (+1700)
Speaking of Love, his former team found its way back to a No. 1 seed after missing the tournament in 2022-23. The Tar Heels' offense is worse than a typical champion's, but senior guard RJ Davis is the type of elite scorer who can spearhead a deep run.
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Tennessee Volunteers (+1800)
Just like with UNC, Tennessee doesn't look the part offensively but features one of the country's best scorers in Dalton Knecht. With a top-three defense to support his nightly heroics, don't sleep on the Volunteers in the Midwest Region.
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Auburn Tigers (+2200)
Auburn was the most underseeded team on Selection Sunday by efficiency margin, and the Tigers now have to contend with the loaded East Region. Still, this team has all the makings of a potential national champion.
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Marquette Golden Eagles (+3000)
Marquette was a trendy pick to win the NCAA Tournament in 2023 before an injury to Tyler Kolek hindered the team's chances in the second round. He's battling another injury this time around, but a healthy Golden Eagles squad is a force to be reckoned with.
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Creighton Bluejays (+3000)
Creighton is the only team to beat defending champion UConn in the last three months and has the type of hyper-efficient offense and stingy defense you'd want from a championship contender. Keep an eye on the Bluejays.
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Duke Blue Devils (+3500)
It's rare to see the Blue Devils dealing at such long odds entering the NCAA Tournament, especially with a potential March star like 7-foot-0 center Kyle Filipowski. If he turns it on over the next three weeks, Duke could be an issue for top teams.
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San Diego State (+10000)
This isn't that crazy to imagine; the Aztecs made the national title game in 2023 and once again featured a top-10 defense to carry an offense outside of the top 60. Is star center Jaedon LeDee - who ranks fifth in KenPom's POTY race - enough to spark another Cinderella run for Brian Dutcher's group?
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2024 March Madness bracket
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