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Tennessee Volunteers guard Chaz Lanier (2) shoots the ball as we make our Florida vs. Tennessee prediction for Saturday.
Pictured: Tennessee Volunteers guard Chaz Lanier (2) shoots the ball. Photo by Randy Sartin-Imagn Images.

Two of the biggest rivals in the SEC meet on the hardwood at noon ET (ESPN) at Food City Center in Knoxville when the Tennessee Volunteers host the Florida Gators. Our Florida vs. Tennessee prediction attacked the 5-point spread along with my best player prop pick.

Tennessee is still a 5-point home favorite in this matchup of March Madness odds favorites despite losing back-to-back conference games and getting walloped at Florida 73-43 on Jan. 7. 

Our Florida vs. Tennessee prediction and odds breakdown explain why this rematch will be different and why the Volunteers will exact their revenge for the earlier blowout loss in Gainesville.

Florida vs. Tennessee predictions today

College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites.

  • Against the spread pick: Tennessee -4.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Florida ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Chaz Lanier Over 2.5 3-pointers made (-150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Florida vs. Tennessee ATS prediction

Tennessee to cover the spread: -4.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Backing the home favorites is a contrarian play (57% of wagers are on the Gators), given how soundly Florida beat Tennessee in the first matchup, and that the Volunteers enter on a two-game losing skid.

Tennessee was the top-ranked team in the country not long ago, and I am less concerned about its 4-4 start in SEC play, considering the conference could get a record number of teams in the NCAA Tournament this year.

Prior to facing Kentucky, the Volunteers had allowed 54.7 points at home in SEC play. While the Wildcats scored 78 in a five-point road win on Tuesday, that was right in line with their 77.7 points per game scoring average on the road in conference games.

Kentucky is now 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog this year, and its five-out offensive spacing was always likely to be a problem for Tennessee’s elite gap-minded defense. 

Florida does not space the floor as well as Kentucky, so this is a much more favorable matchup for the Volunteers. I also do not expect the Gators to out-rebound Tennessee by 19 like they did in the first matchup.

I am headed to FanDuel to back the Volunteers, as it is the only one of our best March Madness betting sites offering a spread lower than -5. A winning $10 wager through FanDuel’s -110 odds would pay out $19.09.

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Best Florida vs. Tennessee pick

Our NEW college basketball player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Chaz Lanier Over 2.5 3-pointers made ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If Tennessee is to defend its home court, it is going to need much better production from beyond the arc. 

The Volunteers are a combined 15-for-67 from 3-point range in back-to-back losses to Auburn and Kentucky, and guards Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier are a combined 6-for-33 from deep during that span.

It is anyone’s guess how Zeigler will look after he suffered a right knee injury in the last game against Kentucky, though he did gut out 35 minutes.

If Zeigler is at all compromised in this matchup, I expect the majority of the perimeter scoring to come from Lanier, who has attempted at least nine 3-point shots in seven of the last 10 games.

bet365 is offering +165 odds for Lanier to make at least four 3-pointers through their alternate line, but there is still value in backing Lanier’s traditional O/U of 2.5 at -150 odds.

Best odds: -150 via bet365 | Implied probability: 60%

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Chaz Lanier player props

Here are Chaz Lanier's best player props odds for Saturday's matchup against Florida.

Live Florida vs. Tennessee odds

See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.

Florida vs. Tennessee opening odds

  • Spread: Florida +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | Tennessee -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Over/Under: Over 142.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | Under 142.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Moneyline: Florida +150 via BetMGM | Tennessee -185 via BetMGM
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Florida vs. Tennessee game info

  • When: Saturday, Feb. 1
  • Tipoff: Noon ET
  • Where: Food City Center (Knoxville, Tenn.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Favorite: Tennessee -5.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

College basketball betting odds pages

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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