Free College Basketball Picks: NCAAB Predictions & Best Bets

NC State star Darrion Williams has shockingly gone three consecutive games without a made 2-point field goal, as he is 0-for-8 from inside the arc in that span.

Darrion Williams is taking a team-high 26.8% of NC State's shots this season, including 28.6% since the start of conference play. He could exploit Texas' defense if he's able to stay out of foul trouble on Tuesday.

These two teams combined for 199 points in the regular-season meeting for a reason. NC State ranks 10th in 3-point shooting, while Texas is fourth in free-throw rate. Both teams have a favorable path to scoring points on Tuesday.

Dontae Horne is averaging over 20 points per game this season, thanks to a free-throw rate of 46.7%. But that could be a problem against Lehigh, which ranks 123rd in the country with a free-throw rate allowed of 32.8%.

Lehigh excels at running teams off the 3-point line, as its 32.2% 3-point attempt rate allowed ranks 12th. It allowed even fewer in non-conference games, as Patriot League opponents jacked threes up at a 35.3% rate against the Mountain Hawks.

Prairie View A&M owns the nation's longest ATS cover streak at 11 games, which began on Feb. 14. 

Whitlock is shooting 44.5% from deep and about to face one of the worst 3-point defenses in the country. He has scored at least 30 points in eight games, and he's averaging 21.0 points per game entering a great matchup.

Both of these teams are averaging over 73 points per game and allowing over 74. The only way this Over doesn't hit is if nerves play a huge factor.

Lehigh is shooting 36.5% from deep this season, which ranks 39th in the country. Prairie View A&M is allowing opponents to make 35% of their 3-pointers, ranking 249th in the country.

SMU small forward Jaron Pierre Jr. is an excellent rebounder despite only standing 6-foot-5. This is his third collegiate year where he is on pace for a defensive rebounding rate or 13.7% or better.

Miller has averaged 19.2 PPG while facing an ACC schedule and dropping 21 or more points in four of his last five games. He's seen a recent uptick in three-point attempts, shooting eight or more in three straight games, boasting a pair of games in that span with five and seven made threes, respectively.

The Mustangs rank 174th in opposing 3-point percentage and could be susceptible to the Redhawks letting it fly. Miami (OH) makes 37.5% of its threes (21st), and averages 9.8 made threes per game (34th).

Miami (OH)'s scoring (87.2 PPG) and three-point shooting (37.5%) should keep the Redhawks close against SMU, as the Mustangs allow a whopping 77.6 PPG (256th in nation).

Thornton is Ohio State's all-time leading scorer, and he ranks in the 98th percentile in scoring efficiency out of ball screens, and the 87th percentile off the dribble.

Bruce Thornton has averaged 4.6 assists per game this month. That bodes well in this spot against TCU, which ranks 347th in assist rate allowed this year.

Based on adjusted offensive efficiency metrics, Ohio State has recorded four of its six best offensive games of the season since the calendar flipped to March. The Buckeyes are in good form heading into the first matchup of Round 1.

If you’re worried about Dowd’s stats regressing now that he’s facing elite competition, know that he averaged 17.3 points and 11.3 rebounds per game against Quad 1 and 2 teams.

Troy ranks 43rd in 3-point percentage defense, which is why it allows just 29.4% of opponents’ points from beyond the arc.

Troy returned 44% of the minutes from a team that lost by 19 in the NCAA Tournament to Kentucky. But those Wildcats fared much better than this year’s Nebraska squad in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency (10th vs. 55th) and 3-point shooting (24th vs. 103rd).

The $1,000,000 question entering this game is how is Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr.’s back doing? Louisville is just 7-5 in games without Brown, and he has missed four straight.

Wes Enis has an O/U of 3.5 3-pointers made as South Florida and Louisville both rank in the 80th percentile or higher in transition rates, suggesting this game should be a track meet.

Wes Enis, who was a Division II player last year, is someone capable of playing the role of a March hero. He's hit three or more triples in 19 of his 31 games this year, including seven of his previous 11 contests.

Louisville is 7-8 straight up this year when shooting worse than 35% from 3-point range. If South Florida can avoid a hot night, it can win with extra possessions via an offensive rebound rate of 38.2%.

Rob Martin, a 5-foot-10 guard, has scored more than 16 points in just 14 of his 33 games this year due to his inconsistent playing time. I don't see that changing in a Round 1 matchup against Wisconsin.

Wisconsin could be under a lot of pressure in its ball-screen-centric offense. High Point ranks fifth in the nation in defensive turnover rate. The Panthers profile as a sneaky underdog capable of making their opponent sweat in Round 1.

Florida State had success in the quarterfinal of the conference tournament in slacking off Boozer in order to give his brother, Cameron, more defensive attention. Cayden must’ve taken that as a slight, scoring 16 points apiece in the next two games, while playing season-highs in minutes (37 and 40, respectively).

Siena’s undoing will be a defensive turnover rate that lowered to 15.8% in MAAC play (11th-worst), meaning Duke will have plenty of clean possessions.

Vanderbilt is equipped to slice up the Cowboys’ pressure, as it ranks ninth in the country in points per possession in press offense.

McNeese's aggressive defense can be hurt by good passing decisions, as it ranks 301st in defensive assist rate. Vanderbilt guard Tyler Tanner is averaging more than five assists per game in wins this season.

When McNeese can't create turnovers, it has a difficult time putting points on the board. The Cowboys' half-court offense ranks in the 43rd percentile.

That could be a problem in Round 1, considering Vanderbilt is 11th in offensive turnover rate.

The Bison covered the first half spread in 24 of their 34 games, and are 15-5 to the first half spread in non-home games.

Few Big Ten players had the ball in their hands more than Jeremy Fears, who ranked sixth in the conference in possession percentage. While Fears also ranks in the 90th percentile in ball screen usage, North Dakota State’s new defensive philosophy of aggressive hedging should force the ball out of Fears’ hands early and often.

North Dakota State ranks in the 11th percentile in transition defense, a necessary feature to shutting down a Tom Izzo-coached attack.

Hawaii’s defense ranks in the top 15 in the country in 3-point attempt rate, and the top three in assist rate. And not only are the Rainbow Warriors not allowing long range attempts, but its 3-point percentage defense ranks in the top 30 in the country.

Acuff’s O/U for assists is 6.5. In the last five games he has finished with six or fewer assists, he has scored 37, 17, 20, 49, and 28 points.

Without Caleb Wilson, North Carolina has ranked No. 38 overall on Bart Torvik across the last month. During that same stretch, VCU is 31st.

I like this price on the better team in a coin-flip matchup.

Zach Clemence might be Texas A&M's starting center, but he's not much of a rebounder. He's averaging 3.1 rebounds per game this year, clearing this rebound line in just 11 of his 32 games.

Saint Mary's will have two big advantages in this matchup: creating extra possessions and its free-throw production. The Gaels are the best free-throw shooting team in the country and are fourth in rebound margin. 

Instead of backing Power’s overall point total, I am focused just on his 3-pointers, as the Fighting Illini defense allows the 38th-highest percentage of points to opponents to come from beyond the arc.

A Quakers offense that ranked 283rd offensively from Jan. 24 to the Ivy League Championship on Sunday will not keep up with Illinois.

With Georgia likely to press, I expect Robbie Avila to be used as an outlet option in transition. He's also just an excellent passing big man, having cleared this assist line in 20 of his 33 games this season.

Under head coach Josh Schertz, Saint Louis has had considerable success with ball-screen sets. The Billikens rank in the 96th percentile in half-court offense, while the Bulldogs (58th percentile) struggle to get stops in that department.

Gonzaga ranks fourth nationally with a plus-9.4 point margin in the first halves of games. That dominance is due in large part to an offense that averages 41.1 first-half points, which ranks 16th nationally.

Jackson Rasmussen only had a 6.1% offensive rebounding rate and an 11.4% defensive rebounding rate in five games against “Tier B” opponents, per KenPom. The physicality against a Houston team will be too much to overcome for him to exceed this projected total for just the second time in the last five games.

The Vandals get next to nothing offensively inside the arc, ranking ninth among Big Sky teams in the percentage of points coming from 2-point range.

Denzel Aberdeen has been distributing the ball effectively for Kentucky this season, averaging 3.6 assists per game. He's increased his playmaking in this area of late, averaging 4.85 assists per game over his past seven contests.

This is an area in which Kentucky can exploit Santa Clara, as the Broncos permit 15.2 assists per game to the opposition (295th). They've been particularly generous of late, allowing 19.0 assists per game over their past three games.

While Santa Clara has the slightly better offense according to the metrics (23rd vs. 39th in ORtg), the differential on the defensive end should make the difference in this game. Kentucky boasts a top-30 adjusted defensive efficiency, with Santa Clara falling outside the top 80.

Akron is pure electricity, as the Zips can shoot threes with the best of them (10.9 made threes per game) but have one of the weaker defensive teams in the field. That leads to points against Texas Tech's 12th-ranked ORtg.

Hardman has been on a heater from deep range recently, knocking down three or more triples in four of his past five games.

While the Zips might hit some keys threes, Akron's defensive efficiency (113th) will ultimately create too much of a deficit against Texas Tech's potent offense (12th in adjusted efficiency). 

Arizona should score in the mid-90s, but I have very little confidence in Long Island to score due to being outsized and a poor shooting team. It's safer to bet Arizona's team total Over than to rely on Long Island to have any offensive success.

Arizona is a much bigger team than Long Island, and Long Island has the added deficiency of not being a very good 3-point shooting team, making just 6.0 per game. This spread is huge, but Arizona has six 30-point wins this year.

Awaka is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game, and he has 15 double-digit rebounding performances this season. Even if he sees limited minutes, he's recorded 18 rebounds in 19 minutes against Utah Tech and 16 rebounds in 20 minutes against Denver.

Wright State is averaging 80.7 points per game and shoots 48.8% from the floor. This high shooting percentage should help the Raiders stay within striking distance late.

Virginia scored over 80 points in 11 of 13 nonconference games, averaging 88.3 against non-power teams. Wright State struggles defensively, ranking 193rd in defensive efficiency, and offensively, the Raiders average 80.7 points per game.

De Ridder does most of his scoring from inside the arc, which is where Wright State is easiest to exploit. Wright State allows 40.8 points from 2-pointers this season, which ranks 323rd in the country.

Iowa State is averaging 81.8 points per game and is the second-best shooting team in the country. Tennessee State ranks 212th in defensive adjusted rating, so even if Tennessee State struggles to score, Iowa State is going to get near 100.

Iowa State shoots 38.7% from deep, and the defense ranks fourth in adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom. Tennessee State ranks 126th in opponent 3-point percentage, despite no team in their conference shooting better than 35.6% from deep.

Lipsey is averaging 5.0 assists per game this season. Considering he's averaging 6.1 against non-power conference teams, and Iowa State is the second-best shooting team in the nation, I expect him to easily clear his season average.

Edmead leads Hofstra with 90 made 3-pointers, and he's shooting 38.3% from deep this season. Alabama ranks 169th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage.

Alabama has the highest-scoring offense in the nation, but this is a huge number no matter what teams are playing. Plus, Hofstra ranks 19th in scoring defense, so the Pride should be able to hold Alabama at least slightly below their season average of 91.7.

Hofstra is making 36.8% of their 3-pointers this season (33rd-best in the nation), and is about to face a defense that ranks 169th in opponent 3-point percentage. Hofstra also has the 19th-best scoring defense and should be able to keep this close with the nation's highest-scoring offense.

Lewis has failed to reach double-digit points in three of his past four games as the freshman seems to be hitting a wall down the stretch. We expect this game total to go Under, which could correlate to another quiet performance from Lewis.

Villanova's measured pace (296th in adjusted tempo) should limit possessions and suppress scoring as both teams possess top-45 defensive units.

Utah State's elite offensive efficiency and interior scoring (11th in nation in two-point percentage) should have the edge over Villanova's mediocre two-point defense (170th).

Iowa holds opponents to 11.6 assists per game (38th in nation), and although he's on a recent heater, Ace Buckner has only racked up 3+ assists 10 times in 34 games.

Iowa's winning March Madness experience after Ben McCollum brought a whole crew with him from Drake should benefit the Hawkeyes. Of these two similarly-styled squads, Iowa has the superior balance to Clemson.

I like Iowa's scoring and free-throw shooting late to dictate the slow-paced matchup, and the Hawkeyes have played to a trend of 19-14 on Overs this season.

Against a defense allowing 82.9 points per game, Purdue may score more than 100 in this game. Ultimately, whether this Over hits will come down to what Queens achieves offensively.

As a team, the Royals are averaging 84.9 points per game, so I'll back them to do just enough against a solid defense for this Over to hit.

According to KenPom, Purdue ranks first in adjusted offensive rating, which is going to be a problem for a Queens team that ranks 322nd in adjusted defensive rating.

Queens is allowing 82.9 points per game, which ranks 353rd in the country.

Kaufman-Renn leads Purdue with 8.5 rebounds per game, and this season, he grabbed at least 11 boards in all three games against non-power conference teams, where he played more than 20 minutes.

Both Kansas and Cal Baptist rank in the top 50 in defensive efficiency, and they both rank 164th or worse in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Cal Baptist is shooting just 43.2% from the field (267th), and the Lancers should struggle against the third-best shooting defense in the country.

Cal Baptist ranks 265th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, so the Lancers will be able to slow this game down and use their top-50 defense to prevent Kansas from getting comfortable offensively.

Cal Baptist is allowing the 14th-fewest assists per game, and Peterson is averaging just 1.7 per contest. He has fewer than two assists in 14 of his 22 games this year.

UConn has held seven consecutive opponents to 72 or fewer points, ranks 11th in adjusted defensive rating from KenPom, and is allowing just 65.1 points per game.

But the offense has also scored 73 or fewer in six of its last seven games.

UConn is 3-2 in its last five games, with only one win by more than 16 points.

While Furman will struggle against one of the best defenses in the country, I worry about UConn's offense, which has scored 73 or fewer in six of seven games.

Demary is averaging 6.2 assists per game, and he recorded at least seven assists in three of his five games against non-power conference teams this season.