🏀 Tennessee State vs. Iowa State Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Round (March 20)
No. 2 Iowa State will look to avoid a shocking upset, as No. 15 Tennessee State enters this matchup as one of the biggest underdogs of the tournament.
My best Tennessee State vs. Iowa State prediction for Friday's 2:50 p.m. ET (CBS/March Madness Live) game at Enterprise Center in St. Louis focuses on Tennessee State's inability to stop opposing offenses. Iowa State is the 24.5-point betting favorite, and I'm predicting this game will be long over before halftime.
For more NCAA Tournament picks, check out our March Madness predictions.
🏀 Tennessee State vs. Iowa State picks & odds: March Madness First Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State -24.5 | -110 via bet365 | 2u -> 1.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over 149 | -110 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.36u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Tamin Lipsey Over 4.5 assists | +100 via bet365 | 2u -> 2u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 5.5 units | Max profit: 5.18 units
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🏆 Who will win Tennessee State vs. Iowa State?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Iowa State will win this game by 30 due to a dominant all-around performance.
As many key metrics show, Tennessee State struggles on both sides of the ball, and that's going to be a major problem facing the fourth-most-efficient defense and 21st-most-efficient offense, according to KenPom.
Score prediction: Iowa State 93, Tennessee State 63
💰 Tennessee State vs. Iowa State prediction & best bet
Iowa State -24.5 (-110)
Iowa State is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, knocking down 38.7% of its attempts from deep. Six different Cyclones shoot over 30% from deep, including Milan Momcilovic, who shoots 49.6% from 3-point range.
Tennessee State ranks 126th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage despite playing in a conference where only one team shot better than 35.6% from beyond the arc.
Between Iowa State's offensive advantage and the fact that the Cyclones rank fourth in adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom, I don't see how this isn't a blowout.
🔥 Best Tennessee State vs. Iowa State player prop bet
Tamin Lipsey Over 4.5 assists (+100)
Lipsey is averaging 5.0 assists per game, and yet, for some reason, bet365 has him reaching his season average in this game with a price of +100.
Lipsey dished out seven assists in the Big 12 semifinal, and he has at least four assists in four consecutive games. This season, he's recorded at least five assists in 18 of his 31 games, and he averaged 6.1 in six games against non-power conference teams.
Tennessee State allowed opponents to shoot 44.4% this season, third-worst in the Ohio Valley. With Iowa State the second-best shooting team in the nation (49%), there shouldn't be too many misses from the Cyclones. That's great news for Lipsey, as the team's leading setup man.
🚀 Tennessee State vs. Iowa State same-game parlay
Iowa State's offense is going to be too much for Tennessee State. Even if Tennessee State only scores in the low-60s, I'm still backing the second-best shooting team in the country to cover and help this total go Over.
And with Over 4.5 assists set at +100 for Lipsey, it adds serious value to this parlay, as Iowa State scoring in the 90s means Lipsey dishing out at least five assists is likely.
💵 Tennessee State vs. Iowa State SGP picks
- Iowa State -24.5 (-110)
- Over 149 (-110)
- Tamin Lipsey Over 4.5 assists (+100)
Best odds: +629 via Sportsbook (1u -> 6.29u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-14 | +1.09 units ✅ | +3.6% ✅ |
| Game picks | 6-8 | -1.83 units ❌ | -9.6% ❌ |
| Player props | 2-2 | -0.87 units ❌ | -13.3% ❌ |
| Parlays | 2-4 | +3.79 units ✅ | +75.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Tennessee State vs. Iowa State: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
The latest March Madness betting trends show that both of these teams are great against the spread, with each at least seven games over .500.
But even with the spread so large, I can't see Iowa State failing to cover against a team that ranks 212th in defensive adjusted rating.
Because Lipsey is so integral to Iowa State's offensive success, I'll risk two units on Over 4.5 assists for him and Iowa State -24.5. The only reason I'm risking just 1.5 units on the Over is how good Iowa State's defense has been this season.
📊 Live Tennessee State vs. Iowa State odds: March Madness First Round
Iowa State opened as the 23.5-point betting favorite at the best sports betting sites, and surprisingly, the spread has only moved one point in the Cyclones' favor.
I expect this number to grow as bettors realize what a mismatch this is, so I'd get in before the spread swells to 26.5 or more.
As for the total, it opened at 148.5 and now sits at 149.5. I don't think bettors will keep betting this up, as that would show a lot of faith in Tennessee State against a great defense.
📈 Tennessee State vs. Iowa State betting trends
| Tennessee State | Statistic | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| 23-9 | Record | 27-7 |
| 18-10-1 | ATS record | 20-13-1 |
| 13-16 | O/U record | 15-19 |
| 187th | KenPom ranking | 6th |
| 109.1 (173rd) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 123.8 (21st) |
| 110.9 (212th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 91.4 (4th) |
📺 How to watch Tennessee State vs. Iowa State: March Madness First Round
- Date: Friday, March 20
- Tipoff: 2:50 p.m. ET
- Location: Enterprise Center (St. Louis)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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