NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Monday's Game 7

Can the Boston Celtics become the first team in NBA history to erase an 0-3 series deficit and advance to the NBA Finals? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his top NBA player props and best bets for Monday's Heat-Celtics Game 7 using the best NBA odds.

If the Boston Celtics go on to eliminate the Miami Heat and become the first team in NBA history to ever come back from a 0-3 series deficit, how can they not switch the advertisement on their jersey to Topgolf for the NBA Finals? It was Al Horford's suggestion that the Celtics skip the film session and go to Topgolf, and several players have highlighted that this was the turning point of the series.

While the Celtics may stun the Heat and advance to the NBA Finals, it only matters to me if they do it by winning by more than 7.5 points on Monday; our Zachary Hanshew shares his opinion in his Heat vs. Celtics predictions.

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Monday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via FanDuel)

• Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (-7.5)

Monday’s NBA best bets

• Spread: Miami Heat +7.5 vs. Celtics (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Al Horford Over 2.5 assists vs. Heat (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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NBA game picks

Spread: Heat +7.5 vs. Celtics (-110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

You get the sense that this series already feels over with the Celtics' ability to even push it to seven games. Everyone has begun to write off the Heat and assume the Celtics have completed one of the best comebacks in NBA history. The Celtics may have forced a Game 7, but I think the pressure has ultimately flipped, and the Heat will be playing very loose.

I don't see this being a blowout, and even if you think back to Game 5, the Heat had a chance to cover the 8.5-point spread if not for Sam Hauser's three-pointer in the final minute. Heat stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo both sat out the majority of the fourth quarter in Game 5, and they won't be doing that in a do-or-die Game 7.

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Offense looked difficult for the Heat at many times in Game 6, and Butler and Adebayo combined to shoot 9-for-37 from the field, yet they still almost pulled off the win thanks to some hot shooting from their role players.

Can the Celtics pull off the first-ever comeback after being down 0-3 in a series? It's very likely, but the 7.5-point spread is just too much for me not to take the Heat. I think this spread should be closer to Heat +6, which is why I'm taking the 7.5 points at PointsBet. We can price the spread of Heat +7.5 at -129, with the projection that the Heat should be trading as 6-point underdogs.

The market is also showing signs of support for our idea that this game could be much closer than the spread indicates. Circa opened the Celtics at -8, and they're now trading at -7. Pinnacle opened the Celtics at -8.5, and they're also down to Celtics -7. These are two of the sharpest books in the world, and I will gladly use their line movement as information and confirmation for our bet.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.  

Monday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: Al Horford Over 2.5 assists vs. Heat (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I've been keeping an eye on Horford's assist odds ever since the player props for Game 7 came out because what I've seen on film really excites me about this bet. But hey, I'm not about to place a bet unless the numbers are in my favor, regardless of what I see on film. Well, guess what? The market just showed us something that has me smashing the button on this Horford assist prop!

Horford has been consistently trading at Over 2.5 assists (+100) for a while now at our best NBA betting sites, and I was concerned that the market didn't agree with my assessment. Nevertheless, there has been some movement toward the Over for Horford at Pinnacle, with the price shifting from +101 to -126, which further confirms what I was observing from the projections.

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Miami implemented a zone defense at the end of Game 6, which helped erase the deficit and come close to winning the game. The Heat's zone defense allows them to keep Duncan Robinson on the court for offense while preventing the Celtics from isolating him on the defensive end.

If the Heat employ some zone defense on Monday, Horford becomes an excellent facilitator in the middle of that zone. They feed him the ball inside to collapse the defense, and then he kicks it out to shooters. We have witnessed this play out multiple times in the series, and Horford can quickly accumulate assists in this manner.

Based on projections, Horford is expected to record 2.9 assists on Monday against the Heat, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -115. With the opportunity to bet on the Over at FanDuel at +100, this bet shows a positive expected value of 7%.

This bet is likely to experience movement, but you have options. FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365 all offer Horford Over 2.5 assists at even odds. While you still have choices, the odds are bound to change, so it’s advisable to place this bet immediately and not wait!

NBA best bets made 05/29/2023 at 1:15 p.m. ET.

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