NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Thursday

Can the Boston Celtics fend off elimination one more time and send the Eastern Conference Finals back to Miami for Game 6? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his top NBA player props and best bets for Thursday's Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 using the best NBA odds.

Marcus Smart warned us that the Miami Heat should not allow the Boston Celtics to win a single game, and now we have the chance to see if that storyline will unfold. Can the Celtics become the first team ever to overcome an 0-3 series deficit in the NBA Playoffs?

With the conclusion of the Western Conference Finals and the entire focus shifting to the Eastern Conference Finals, it's more crucial than ever to leverage multiple of our best sports betting apps to help with you get the most value on your Heat vs. Celtics predictions. These player props are receiving unprecedented attention, so it's absolutely vital not to overlook one of the most powerful tools as a bettor, which is line shopping.

If you think I'm joking, take a look at the exceptional price we discovered for a Jaylen Brown points prop for Thursday's Game 5.

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Thursday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via FanDuel)

• Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (-8)

Thursday’s NBA best bets

• Player prop: Jaylen Brown Over 22.5 points vs. Heat (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Derrick White Over 2.5 assists vs. Heat (+116 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Thursday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: Jaylen Brown Over 22.5 points vs. Heat (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Brown has been disappointing in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Heat; there's no denying that. He has struggled from beyond the arc and is averaging only 16.8 points per game in the series. Brown has also gone Under his point total in nine of his last 10 games. Initially, this trend might have made you inclined to bet on the Under, but let's examine how deceptive this betting trend can be.

Although Brown has gone Under the closing line in nine of his last 10 games, he has actually exceeded the total of 22.5 points in five of the last 10 games. This demonstrates that the adjustment to his total and the price are significant factors. Just by reducing his usual point total from 24.5 to 22.5, the trend has shifted.

Brown is projected to score 24.4 points on Thursday, which allows us to price the Over 22.5 points at -135. The drop from 24.5 points to 22.5 points greatly benefits this bet and our ability to extract some value from it.

Bet $5, Win $300 in Bonus Bets

New customers only. Min. first deposit and wager of $5+. Bonus bets are awarded within 72 hours of winning your first wager. T&Cs apply.

Claim $300

If the projection were 24.4 points on a total of 24.5 points, it would not be favorable, as it would indicate a negative expected value for the Over. However, our advantage lies in capitalizing on the pricing adjustment for Brown.

The best price for Brown is available at FanDuel, where he's trading at -118 for Over 22.5 points. Most of our best sports betting sites concur that Brown's price should be closer to -125, while Pinnacle has the Over at -130. Therefore, seizing this advantageous price at FanDuel is crucial for maximizing your edge with your NBA picks for Thursday.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.

Player prop: Derrick White Over 2.5 assists vs. Heat (+116 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Get ready to fire up your BetRivers account because we have an incoming five-star bet! This White prop meets all the criteria I value when placing a wager, and I recommend taking action on this prop sooner rather than later.

To begin with, we have a favorable projection compared to the pricing offered at BetRivers. White is projected to deliver 2.9 assists against the Heat on Thursday, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -115. Consequently, this bet shows a positive expected value of 16%.

Up to a $500 Second Chance Bet

Terms and conditions apply.

Claim $500

Not only do we have the projections in our favor, but BetRivers is also running rogue with their pricing relative to our other best NBA betting sites. While FanDuel offers the Over 2.5 assists on White at even odds, PointsBet and BetMGM have it priced at +105. Is BetRivers the only one with the correct odds while other trading teams and projections are wrong?

I'm skeptical. Especially since we've witnessed steam toward the Over at Pinnacle, where White was initially trading at +108 this morning but has since been adjusted to -101. I find it hard to believe that BetRivers alone has the correct pricing, which is why I think we should voice our opinion on their +116 price point by placing a bet.

Additionally, besides the betting numbers and market analysis, we also have a narrative working in our favor. Malcolm Brogdon is dealing with an injury, making it highly likely that White will see increased minutes on Thursday. 

NBA best bets made 05/25/2023 at 1:05 p.m. ET.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

• FanDuel: $1,000 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
• Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
• DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
• PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

• Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)