🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: Luka & Top Picks for March 12
📡 SBR Intel: NBA Player Props Tonight
My NBA player props tonight feature Luka Doncic Under 31.5 points (-111), as Chicago ranks 9th in defensive efficiency over its last three games. I've also bet Cooper Flagg Under 22.5 points (-117). He's scored fewer than 19 in four straight contests. I wrap up my NBA best bets with Bam Adebayo Under 22.5 points (-118), as the Heat center should come back down to earth after dropping 83.
🏀 Best NBA player props tonight: March 12
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic Under 31.5 points | -111 via DraftKings | 1.67u -> 1.5u | Bulls 9th in defensive efficiency in last 3 games |
| Cooper Flagg Under 22.5 points | -117 via DraftKings | 1.17u -> 1u | Flagg's median point total in last 4 games: 16.25 |
| Bam Adebayo Under 22.5 points | -118 via BetMGM | 0.59u -> 0.5u | Last 6 players to score 70+ underperformed after |
Total wagered: 3.43 units | Max profit: 3 units
💰 Best NBA player prop bet tonight
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Luka Doncic Under 31.5 points (-111) vs. Bulls
As a lifelong Lakers fan, it pains me to bet against Doncic - plus, he can go off for 60+ at any given moment - but he just hasn't been as aggressive lately, particularly in fourth quarters.
On top of that, while the Bulls are very injured - they have 12 players on their official injury report - they have been above average defensively lately. Chicago is ranked ninth in the NBA in defensive efficiency over the last three games. DraftKings lists Doncic Under 31.5 points at -111, but I would play this at the best sports betting sites up to -135.
📊 Luka Doncic prop trends
The Lakers have the 10th-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
| Bet | Best odds | Last 5 games | Last 5 vs. Bulls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 31.5 points | -106 via FanDuel | 2-3 ❌ | 2-3 ❌ |
| Over 7.5 rebounds | -136 via Caesars | 5-0 ✅ | 3-2 ✅ |
| Over 9.5 assists | +165 via BetMGM | 1-4 ❌ | 3-2 ✅ |
| Over 3.5 three-pointers made | -128 via DraftKings | 3-2 ✅ | 4-1 ✅ |
While I believe Doncic's recent performances overall are relevant to handicapping his player props tonight, I wouldn't look too much into his previous stats against the Bulls.
Chicago is dealing with several injuries tonight, and its roster has changed significantly since two seasons ago, when DeMar DeRozan was still on the team.
🔥 More NBA player prop picks
I feature more NBA picks worth tailing in my Celtics vs. Thunder player props tonight.
Cooper Flagg Under 22.5 points (-117) at Grizzlies
I want Flagg to be more competitive in the Rookie of the Year race, but he just hasn't been the same since coming back from injury.
His median point total is 16.25 since returning on March 5, and he's shooting 34.6% from the field, including 25% from beyond the arc. While the Grizzlies are poor defensively, that also gives Dallas the opportunity to take an early lead and rest Flagg in the fourth. Flagg Under 22.5 points is -117 at DraftKings, but this bet is good up to -135 at the best NBA betting sites.
Bam Adebayo Under 22.5 points (-118) vs. Bucks
I've done a little digging on this. How have players performed in recent years after scoring 70+ points in a game?
Not well, apparently. They have put up a median of 5.65 points below their season average. Kevin Durant even commented on how much energy it takes to go out and get up that many shots in an NBA game, which is why I believe Adebayo will underperform tonight. BetMGM has Adebayo Under 22.5 points at -118; however, I would still play this on the best sports betting apps up to -130.
🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Here's my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Giddey | Bulls | Over 16.5 rebounds + assists | -150 |
| Ajay Mitchell | Thunder | Over 19.5 points + rebounds + assists | -130 |
| Pelle Larsson | Heat | Over 7.5 rebounds + assists | -120 |
| Isaiah Joe | Thunder | Under 14.5 points + rebounds | -125 |
| Cam Johnson | Nuggets | Under 9.5 points | -130 |
Josh Giddey Over 16.5 rebounds + assists makes sense, as he's gone over this number in four straight games.
The Lakers are an 11-point betting favorite, though, so you do run the risk of Giddey playing fewer minutes if Los Angeles takes a large lead into the fourth quarter. I would wait until LeBron James' status is announced before playing this Over, as I believe it's less likely that the Lakers will rout the Bulls if James returns.
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 49-50-3 | -1.6 units ❌ | -1.3% ❌ |
| Player props | 48-42-3 | -0.26 units ❌ | -0.2% ❌ |
| Parlays | 1-8 | -1.34 units ❌ | -49.68% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
I'm allocating 3.43 units for this game, which is usually what I would bet on three player props.
While the big draw for me tonight is taking Doncic Under 31.5 points (-111), I have less confidence in the other two bets, specifically in Adebayo underperforming after scoring 83. I've targeted these three Unders because I believe they're mispriced; however, Adebayo is priced closer to where I'd set him than Doncic.
🎯 NBA play of the day
Here is LJ Blut's X video Play of the Day featuring Thunder -7.5:
The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a prime position to cover the 7.5-point spread tonight against the Boston Celtics. Boston will be without star forward Jayson Tatum, who has been ruled out for the matchup as the team manages his Achilles recovery, removing one of its top offensive creators and most versatile scorers.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has been dominant all season and especially strong at home, where the Thunder boast one of the best records in the NBA. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading an explosive offense and the Paycom Center crowd behind it, OKC should control the tempo and create enough separation to cover comfortably.
If you want to read more about this pick, see Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder.
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