NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Wednesday
Will Karl-Anthony Towns and the Minnesota Timberwolves be able to even their series against the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his NBA best bets for Wednesday's three-game NBA playoff schedule using the best NBA odds.
In Tuesday's version of the NBA best bets article, I lost us a little over a unit, which is totally unacceptable to me. Our goal is to win units, not lose them. The good news is that the odds board is buzzing on Wednesday, and I've already found two five-star bets.
I hope you're planning on staying up late Wednesday night to watch the Minnesota Timberwolves take on the Denver Nuggets, because we'll have several bets on this Western Conference matchup.
Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.
Wednesday’s NBA schedule and odds
(odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Los Angeles Lakers (-1) vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-6)
- Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets (-8.5)
Wednesday’s NBA best bets
- Player prop: Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 assists vs. Timberwolves (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 points vs. Nuggets (-113 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Aaron Gordon Over 14.5 points vs. Timberwolves (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Nikola Jokic Over 22.5 points vs. Timberwolves (-115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Wednesday’s NBA player prop picks
Player prop: Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 assists vs. Timberwolves (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
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There are not too many times when we can find value in Nikola Jokic's player props, as the markets pay close attention to the two-time MVP, and we have more than just a slight edge here. This bet earns a five-star rating because Jokic's assist prop shows everything I care about in the numbers.
Jokic is projected to have 9.7 assists against the Timberwolves, which is well above his total of 8.5 assists. There's no doubt that this line will move as we approach tip-off because I have the Over priced at -160 based on this projection.
Besides the projection indicating that we should play the Over, a rogue price via DraftKings also enhances our expected value. Both FanDuel and Caesars are trading this prop north of -140, while DraftKings has it priced at -125. The ability to obtain this -125 price point via DraftKings is an important part of our edge, which is why I wouldn't hesitate to place this wager.
Player prop: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 points vs. Nuggets (-113 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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As someone who was considered one of the NBA's next great players just a couple of seasons ago, Karl-Anthony Towns must now prove it, and that'll begin in Game 2 in Denver. Towns scored only 11 points on 15 field goal attempts against the Nuggets in Game 1. Since I'm a trends hater, I view this poor performance as an opportunity to purchase Towns at a better price for Game 2.
Towns is projected to score 23.1 points against the Nuggets on Wednesday, and I fully expect this total to increase from 20.5 points to 21.5 points as we approach tip-off. We can price Towns at -155 to go over 20.5 points based on this projection. In other words, this bet shows an expected value of 15%.
Towns opened with a total of 20.5 points at Pinnacle, with the Over trading at -111, very similar to Caesars' (-113). This prop has been steamed up to -134 on Towns at Pinnacle, so you're essentially receiving free information here, which indicates that the market supports our projection.
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Player prop: Aaron Gordon Over 14.5 points vs. Timberwolves (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Jokic's assist prop earned a five-star rating and looked like the best player prop of any Nuggets player, but when you look at Gordon's points prop, it's not so clear who's the better five-star wager. Just make sure you bet both of them, we don't need to figure out which is the better five-star bet.
As Gordon is projected to score 15.9 points against the Timberwolves on Wednesday, this prop should be trading closer to -130 than -105. As a result of our projection, which gives us a price of -130, this bet shows a positive expected value of 10%.
Considering that 10% isn't the highest expected value ever, why is it receiving a five-star rating? Based on the information we have at our disposal, I believe that the break even percentage at -105 is very solid. This isn't only supported by our projections, but also by the market as a whole.
On BetRivers, the Over is priced at -121, while on FanDuel and PointsBet, it's priced at -118 and -115, respectively. It's unlikely that our projections and all of these trading teams are incorrect, and we're buying into a bad price point at -105.
Player prop: Nikola Jokic Over 22.5 points vs. Timberwolves (-115 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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The Jokic assist prop has already been included in our NBA best bets article, and we’re adding another Jokic player prop for Wednesday’s matchup against the Timberwolves because the numbers suggest that we should. While I grabbed this at Over 22.5 (-110) via BetMGM, it's already moved on us. However, there's still plenty to love about the -115 available at PointsBet.
Taking into account Jokic's projected scoring output of 25.6 points on Wednesday, we can price this prop at -180. You can see that's a huge difference from the -115 at PointsBet and why you should still be placing this bet even though our best price has moved from -110 at BetMGM to -115 at PointsBet.
It's inevitable that this line will touch 23.5 before tip-off, with the way the market is looking, and the projections support it. There has already been an adjustment made by Caesars and FanDuel with Jokic trading at Over 23.5 (-115) on Caesars. It’s a whole point higher with the same juice.
NBA best bets made 4/19/2023 at 4:30 a.m. ET.
Here are our best NBA betting sites:
- FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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