NBA Finals MVP Odds, Predictions: Which Mavericks, Celtics Stars are Best Bets to Win Award?

The NBA Finals are set to get underway on Thursday, and ahead of the Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics series, we're analyzing our best NBA Finals MVP odds, predictions, and power rankings based on the best NBA odds for the 2024 NBA Finals.

As Jayson Tatum and Luka Doncic prepare for Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals, they emerge as top contenders in the NBA Finals MVP odds. The action commences Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC, live from TD Garden in Boston.

Tatum, the standout star for the Boston Celtics, has maintained his position as the front-runner for NBA Finals MVP throughout the postseason, coinciding with his team's status as favorites according to the NBA championship odds. Meanwhile, Doncic's impressive performances have propelled him up the odds leaderboard, reflecting the Dallas Mavericks' journey to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2011.

However, the Bill Russell trophy race isn't confined to just Tatum and Doncic. As highlighted in our NBA Finals odds & betting preview and Mavericks vs. Celtics player props, both teams boast ample star power, suggesting potential value in considering long-shot contenders amidst the short odds on Tatum and Doncic.

Here's a look at the best NBA Finals MVP odds and predictions with our NBA picks and power rankings of the top stars for Mavericks vs. Celtics (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

2024 NBA Finals MVP odds

(Odds as of Monday, June 3)

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NBA Finals MVP power rankings for Mavericks vs. Celtics

5. Jrue Holiday (Celtics)

As the unofficial president of the Derrick White Fan Club™, this was a tough call to make between the do-it-all guard and his backcourt mate. At these odds, though, it's hard not to side with the veteran Holiday ahead of his second NBA Finals appearance.

It feels like the market is sleeping on the 33-year-old guard, who averaged 18.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.5 steals in the Eastern Conference Finals. His two-way contributions in that series made him arguably the third-most important player on the floor behind Tatum - the NBA Finals MVP favorite - and Jaylen Brown, who earned MVP honors after the conference finals.

Holiday is the only player on the Celtics who has previously won a championship, and he'll be tasked with locking up either Doncic or Kyrie Irving in this series. If he succeeds, he could earn his way to MVP honors a la Andre Iguodala in 2015 - but with a little more offense to boot.

These 66/1 odds from BetMGM imply a mere 1.49% chance that Holiday wins this award, per our odds converter, and they pay $660 on a $10 bet if he does. That's the type of long-shot value that makes this worth a small wager ahead of Thursday.

Best odds: +6600 via BetMGM

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4. Kyrie Irving (Mavericks)

The 2024 NBA playoffs have served as a redemption tour for Irving, who has seemingly shaken off the stench of his Brooklyn Nets tenure by leading the Mavericks to the NBA Finals. So it's only fitting that he'll face Boston - where he played for two seasons - in the final round.

You have to imagine that Irving will be especially motivated to stuff the stat sheet against the team he left on bad terms in 2019. That's a scary thought for the Celtics after their former point guard cooked the NBA's best defense to the tune of 27 points per game on 49% shooting in the Western Conference Finals.

Even with that performance, Doncic still earned MVP honors in that series, and it'll be hard for Irving to usurp his superstar teammate unless Doncic gets hurt - which would complicate the Mavericks' chances of winning it all. That's why I can only rank Irving as high as fourth in this list, though I do like the value at these 22/1 odds for the former NBA champion.

Best odds: +2200 via DraftKings

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3. Jaylen Brown (Celtics)

For all of the talk about Tatum being the best player on the Celtics, Brown was the one who captured Eastern Conference Finals MVP honors after scoring 29.8 points per game in a four-game sweep of the Indiana Pacers.

He also outplayed Tatum on a statistical basis when Boston last reached the NBA Finals in 2022, when Brown led his team in scoring (23.5 PPG) and usage rate (28.8%) with the highest combined game score (15.1) against the Golden State Warriors.

I still think Tatum has the better shot to win this award between the two - he is the favorite, after all - but I'd be awfully tempted to bet his teammate at better odds.

Best odds: +650 via DraftKings

2. Jayson Tatum (Celtics)

While Brown claimed MVP honors in the conference finals, Tatum put up better stats across the full series (30.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 6.3 APG) with Brown's late-game heroics likely tipping the scales in his favor.

Still, Tatum has been the better player this season and across the "Jays era" in Boston, and he was arguably the better all-around player in the 2022 NBA Finals aside from his abysmal shooting. He's also the toughest matchup for the Mavericks, especially when he can isolate one of Dallas' bigs in space.

The Celtics posted the third-highest net rating of all time (plus-11.8) in the regular season; eight of the other nine teams in the top 10 ultimately won a title. If Boston does the same, Tatum will likely be in line to finally win this coveted award.

Best odds: -115 via Caesars

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1. Luka Doncic (Mavericks)

I know that Tatum is the prohibitive favorite in this market, but Doncic is my favorite bet to win this award.

The Mavericks superstar has simply been on another level this postseason, hitting circus shots with regularity and dissecting whatever is thrown his way. Against the Minnesota Timberwolves' top-ranked defense, he averaged 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists with two of his six postseason triple-doubles.

Doncic is the overwhelming favorite to lead all players in points and assists, and he's trailing just behind Tatum to lead in rebounds, as well. That's the sort of all-around dominance that often ends with a Bill Russell trophy in hand, and there's a non-zero chance he could win this award even if the Mavericks (+184 via FanDuel) don't win the series.

The folks at bet365 are offering one of the best sportsbook promos of the 2024 NBA Finals, dealing Doncic at +225 to win NBA Finals MVP with his odds as short as +195 elsewhere. Those shorter odds imply a 33.9% chance that he wins it, but the boosted +225 odds return a $22.50 profit on a $10 bet if he does.

Best odds: +225 via bet365

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Top 10 NBA Finals MVP power rankings

NBA Finals predictions

• Mavericks vs. Celtics player props Game 1
• Mavericks vs. Celtics parlay Game 1
• Luka Doncic odds and player props Game 1
• Jayson Tatum odds and player props Game 1
• NBA Finals expert picks
• NBA Finals MVP odds, predictions

How to watch Mavericks vs. Celtics in 2024 NBA Finals

NBA Finals MVP predictions and power rankings made Monday at 4:30 p.m. ET.

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