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Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

The group stage of the NBA In-Season Tournament concludes on Tuesday, and we've got you covered with our top NBA player props and the best bets for Tuesday rooted in the best NBA odds.

Malcolm Brogdon had us laying some serious juice on Monday night, but he came through with a green checkmark and went Under his total of 7.5 assists. Thanks to Ivica Zubac dropping one dime, we went 2-0 on our NBA best bets, winning 1.66 units on the night.

Tuesday will be a fun one in the NBA as the final games of the In-Season Tournament group stage wrap up, and six spots in the quarterfinals are up for grabs.

Yes, you read that right, SIX!

Only the Los Angeles Lakers and Indiana Pacers have moved on to the quarterfinals of the NBA In-Season Tournament, and point differential and tiebreakers are going to be all you hear about throughout Tuesday's slate of games.

So the real question is, how should we leverage these tiebreakers in our NBA player props for Tuesday?

Make sure to check out our Warriors-Kings prediction to go along with our NBA player props and best bets for Tuesday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tuesday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

Tuesday’s NBA best bets

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Tuesday’s NBA player props

Darius Garland Over 6.5 assists vs. Hawks (+112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Cleveland Cavaliers remain in contention within the NBA In-Season Tournament, with their path to advancement reliant on defeating the Atlanta Hawks and doing so with a margin that secures the most favorable point differential among the 3-1 teams. Presently holding a plus-6 point differential, the Cavaliers must secure a victory against the Hawks in a manner that strengthens their point differential, providing them with the best chance to progress further in the tournament.

Why does this draw me to Garland's assists prop? Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has shown he is willing to play Garland for more than 40 minutes this season. Therefore, with the Cavaliers not only needing to win but also by a large margin, I'd expect to see Garland getting increased minutes.

Donovan Mitchell has also recently returned to the Cavaliers' lineup, and this actually makes me like Garland's assists prop even more. With Mitchell on the court, defensive attention shifts away from Garland, creating better spacing for him. This enables Garland to exploit more gaps and generate open shots for his teammates.

Garland is projected to have 7.1 assists on Tuesday, allowing us to price the Over 6.5 assists at -124, but it is trading at FanDuel at +112. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 17%.

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Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 assists vs. Thunder (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This bet is moving quickly. I placed it on FanDuel at -110, but that number rapidly disappeared. However, one of our best sportsbooks is still offering a rogue price on this prop, and it's bet365. Most of our other best sports betting sites are trading Towns in the -140 range, but bet365 is still featuring him at -120.

The Thunder don't really possess the size to match up against Towns and Rudy Gobert at the same time. Chet Holmgren will be guarding Gobert, which means we'll see Jalen Williams on Towns.

Williams is set to return to the lineup for the Thunder on Tuesday, and while he possesses a 7-foot-2 wingspan, he's only 6-foot-5. Towns isn't known for his physicality, but there's such a difference in size for Towns that he should be able to get to his spots and receive a pass from his teammates.

It's hard to envision Williams guarding Towns one-on-one all night, especially since he's returning from an injury. I'd expect to see the Thunder bring some help defense toward Towns, and that means open teammates for assists.

This is a great price on Towns' assists prop, as I'm projecting the Over at -153 based on a forecast of 3.2 assists.

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Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 assists vs. Rockets (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I've been eyeing the assists prop for Irving for weeks now, and after three straight Unders and a move on his total from 5.5 down to 4.5 (AT PLUS MONEY), we now have the perfect opportunity to hit the button and take advantage of this prop.

The reports indicate that Luka Doncic will play on Tuesday, even though he injured his left wrist in the Dallas Mavericks' last game. While an injury to Doncic's left wrist might not impact his shooting, it could pose a problem while dribbling the ball. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Irving on the ball a lot more on Tuesday, just to help protect Doncic's wrist from further deterioration.

Irving is projected to have 5.2 assists on Tuesday against the Rockets, so you can see how the move down from 5.5 to 4.5 plays a big part in providing us with an edge with this wager. A projection of 5.2 isn't nearly high enough for us to justify going Over the 5.5 assists. Based on this projection, we can price Irving at -137 to go Over 4.5 assists.

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NBA best bets made 11/28/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET

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