Rockets vs. Spurs Prediction: NBA Picks & Odds (Oct. 23)
My Rockets vs. Spurs prediction breaks down the first matchup of the season between Lone Star State adversaries, including highlighting my two favorite player props to target on Friday.
Tipoff is at 9:30 p.m. ET at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio (Prime Video). The Spurs are priced as a 5.5- to 6.5-point home betting favorite, but my best bet for the matchup is on the 227.5 total.
Rockets vs. Spurs picks & odds
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Under 227.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 1 unit to profit 0.91 units |
| De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 assists | +116 via FanDuel | 0.5 units to profit 0.58 units |
| Amen Thompson Over 16.5 points | -104 via DraftKings | 0.5 units to profit 0.48 units |
Picks submitted: Oct. 22 @ 1 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.97 units
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Rockets vs. Spurs best bet
Under 227.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
This matchup pits two elite scoring defenses who both had a positive Under percentage last season. While the Spurs boast one of the best offenses at home, we've already seen them sputter at Frost Bank Center.
Early-season shooting woes are common, as evidenced by San Antonio shooting 38.7% from the field against the Thunder in their home opener. It won't get much easier on Friday against a Rockets squad that has the length and athleticism to disrupt any offense's shooting.
Scoring will be limited on both sides between two stingy Texas rivals who know each other well. DraftKings offers the best value on a 227.5 total, which I bet at -110 odds.
Play to: Under 225.5 (+105), pass at 224.5.
Score prediction: Spurs 116, Rockets 108
Rockets vs. Spurs player props
De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 assists (+116 via FanDuel)
De'Aaron Fox tallied seven assists in the season opener while only attempting nine shots, well below the totals of Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and Victor Wembanyama.
That will increasingly be his role as Castle and Harper continue to come into their own as scorers, with Fox as the veteran set-up man.
Playing at Frost Bank Center - he averaged nearly a full assist more at home than on the road last season - I have Fox finishing above his 5.5 assists total at FanDuel's plus-money odds.
Play to: Over 5.5 assists at -114 or better. Pass at 6.5.
Amen Thompson Over 16.5 points (-104 via DraftKings)
Amen Thompson has averaged 20.6 points over his last five games against the Spurs, entering tonight's matchup with back-to-back 20+ outbursts versus San Antonio.
On top of his elite defense and ability to muddy up a matchup, Thompson's offensive game has steadily improved each and every season he's been in the league.
He finished just a half-point below this total against the Mavericks on Wednesday despite playing fewer minutes amid a blowout. I'm backing Thompson to tally at least 17 points on Friday at DraftKings' -104 price tag.
Play to: Over 16.5 points at -115 or better. Pass at 18.5 points.
Live Rockets vs. Spurs odds
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How to watch Rockets vs. Spurs
- Date: Friday, Oct. 23
- Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Frost Bank Center (San Antonio)
- Streaming: Prime Video
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