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NBA Best Bets & Expert Picks Today: Basketball Predictions for Thursday, Oct. 22

I target an underdog and a favorite against the spread, along with an Under on a star point guard.

Corey Scott

Last Updated: October 22, 2026 3:23 PM EDT • 3 minute read

Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) controls the ball as we break down our NBA best bets today. Photo by Jerome Miron / Imagn Images.

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There are only two games on the slate, but that's all I need for my NBA best bets today.

LeBron James and the 76ers host his hometown Cavaliers in the early game, while former MVPs Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander meet in the nightcap as the Nuggets visit the Thunder. The games tip off at 7 p.m. ET and 9:30 p.m. ET, respectively.

NBA best bets: Player props & ATS picks today (Oct. 22)

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.

Matchup	Pick	Units
Cavaliers vs. 76ers	Cavaliers +3.5 (-105 via Caesars)	2.1 units to profit 2 units
Nuggets vs. Thunder	Thunder -8.5 (-115 via BetMGM)	1.73 units to profit 1.5 units
	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 points (-125 via BetMGM)	1.25 units to profit 1 unit

Total wagered: 5.08 units | Max profit: 4.5 units

Best NBA bet today

Cavaliers vs. 76ers prediction: Cavaliers +3.5 (-105)

Yes, the 76ers upset the Knicks on Opening Night, but the new offense with LeBron James and Jaylen Brown scored just 106 points, below its projected total of 112.5.

Of the 28 teams that have already played a game, the 76ers rank 19th in offensive rating, while the Cavaliers ranked sixth in offensive rating last season and are bringing back virtually the same roster.

See my full analysis in my Cavaliers vs. 76ers prediction.

Play to: +3.5 (-123) or +2.5 (-107)

⏰️ Set your alarm: Cavaliers vs. 76ers

Tip: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena
How to watch: ESPN

More NBA picks & player props for Thursday

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction: Thunder -8.5 (-115)

The Nuggets haven't been the same team since they traded away Michael Porter Jr., who just scored 26 points in the Nets' home opener. Denver ranked 21st in defensive efficiency last season, in part because they ranked last in steals per game and third-last in blocks per game.

Now, they have to open their season against the Thunder in Oklahoma City. The Thunder ranked first in both net rating and defensive rating in 2025-26. It's as simple as one team being elite defensively and the other being bad. It doesn't help the Nuggets that the Thunder just beat the Western Conference champions by eight points on Opening Night.

Play to: -8.5 (-130) or -9.5 (-114)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 points (-125)

I played Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 points in my Thunder vs. Spurs prediction, part of a 3-0 sweep in that game, but tonight is a completely different scenario, and the line is higher.

Gilgeous-Alexander had more motivation to be aggressive against the team that eliminated the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, and Oklahoma City was also playing as a 2.5-point underdog, meaning Gilgeous-Alexander would likely play the entire game.

With the Thunder favored by 8.5 points over the Nuggets, there's a real chance tonight will be a blowout, and Gilgeous-Alexander could sit out the fourth quarter, which isn't great for Overs.

Play to: Under 31.5 (-136) or Under 30.5 (-110)

⏰️ Set your alarm: Nuggets vs. Thunder

Tip: 9:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Paycom Center
How to watch: ESPN

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Written by:
Corey Scott

Corey is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review and holds a diploma in Radio and Television Sports Broadcasting from the College of Sports Media in Toronto. He is one of the NBA player-prop specialists at SBR and focuses on the impact of injuries to identify where the market has been slow to adjust. Corey also frequently bets sides in the NBA, NFL, MLB, and CFL, typically using a top-down approach to beat the closing line. His work has appeared across the USA Today Network, Gambling.com Group, and Athlon Sports. With more than a decade of sports betting experience, Corey is familiar with all types of operators, from regulated sportsbooks to less conventional platforms, though he primarily uses Pinnacle and FanDuel. While he rarely bets parlays anymore - unless they are clearly mispriced - his biggest win came from a seven-team parlay at +13675 odds. Corey visits Las Vegas multiple times a year. His favorite resort is the Wynn/Encore, though he can be found at any sportsbook offering an off-market number.