Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction & Props: NBA Odds for Opening Day (Tuesday, Oct. 20)
It's a rematch of last season's Western Conference Finals on Opening Day Tuesday, but my Thunder vs. Spurs prediction and props expect a different outcome this time around.
The Spurs are a 2.5-point betting favorite, with tipoff from Frost Bank Center in San Antonio set for 9:30 p.m. ET (NBC, Fubo). The total is set at 232 (juiced to the Under).
Thunder vs. Spurs prediction & props
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| Pick | Bet size | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder +2.5 (-110 via Caesars) | 2.2 units to win 2 units | My power ratings have the Thunder and Spurs ranked as even teams. |
| Under 232 (-109 via Pinnacle) | 0.55 units to win 0.5 units | The Thunder ranked first in defensive rating last season. |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 points (+108 via BetRivers) | 0.93 units to win 1 unit | Gilgeous-Alexander will benefit from the refs calling more fouls (unlike in the Western Conference Finals). |
Total wagered: 3.68 units | Max profit: +3.5 units
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Thunder vs. Spurs prediction & best bet
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Thunder +2.5 (-110 via Caesars)
I can't get to the Spurs as a 2.5-point betting favorite. I have these teams ranked evenly heading into this season, and if anything, the Thunder have the advantage of game-planning how to beat the Spurs in the offseason after losing to them in the conference finals.
The Thunder ranked first in the NBA with an 11.1 net rating and a 106.5 defensive rating. So, you're telling me I get the best regular-season team from 2025-26 as a 2.5-point underdog just because they didn't win in the conference finals? I'll take the team looking for revenge at +2.5 all day.
Thunder +2.5 (-110 via Caesars) is the best line available among the top NBA betting sites.
Score prediction: Spurs 116, Thunder 115
Best Thunder vs. Spurs player prop bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 points (+108 via BetRivers)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will look much better facing the Spurs this time around, as he won't have to deal with the refs swallowing the whistle in a physical playoff series.
Much of Gilgeous-Alexander's game is based on getting defenders off-balance and initiating contact to get to the free-throw line. He averaged just 7.5 free-throw attempts in the Thunder's losses to the Spurs in the conference finals, compared to his average of 9.0 free-throw attempts in the regular season. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 37 points per 40 minutes in October of last season, so he'll likely get off to another hot start, especially against the Thunder's new rival in the West.
Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 points (+108 via BetRivers) is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
Live Thunder vs. Spurs odds
Thunder vs. Spurs opening odds
- Moneyline: Thunder +125 | Spurs -145
- Spread: Thunder +3 (-110) | Spurs -3 (-110)
- Total: Over 232 (-110) | Under 232 (-110)
Thunder vs. Spurs injuries
How to watch Thunder vs. Spurs
- Date: Tuesday, Oct. 20
- Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Frost Bank Center (San Antonio)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Fubo
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