Duke vs. Virginia Prediction: Week 8 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Oct. 23)
My best Duke vs. Virginia prediction focuses on how Duke can exploit Virginia's biggest defensive weakness. After starting the season 4-0, Duke has dropped back-to-back games, but I expect its rushing attack to have a clear advantage against Virginia's weak run defense this season.
Virginia is favored by 1.5 points ahead of Friday's 7 p.m. ET game at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va. The game will air on ESPN and stream on ESPN Unlimited.
Duke vs. Virginia picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 8 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Duke +1.5 | -105 via DraftKings | 2.5 units to profit 2.38 units |
| Under 47.5 | -115 via bet365 | 1 unit to profit 0.87 units |
Picks submitted: Oct. 21 at 4:30 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 3.5 units | Max profit: +3.25 units
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Duke vs. Virginia prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Duke +1.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
Duke has lost back-to-back games, but the Blue Devils were leading with less than two minutes remaining in each contest. And though running back Nate Sheppard has been slowed down in consecutive games, he's still rushed for at least 77 yards in all six contests, reaching at least 99 yards five times.
While Sheppard is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last week and 3.7 yards per carry against Georgia Tech. However, I expect him to find more room to run against the ACC's 12th-ranked rushing defense, which allows 152 yards per game.
Virginia has the second-fewest passing yards per game in the ACC, managing just 205.1 per game. That means the Cavaliers will look to run in this game. And while they rank eighth in rushing yards per game in the ACC, Duke's run defense has been excellent, allowing just 92.5 yards per game and 3.17 yards per carry.
📡 SBR Edge: Virginia's third-down struggles
Virginia has the worst third-down offense in the ACC, converting on just 32.97% of attempts. Virginia will struggle again against a Duke defense allowing opponents to convert just 29.17% of chances, which ranks second-best in the ACC.
Virginia's inconsistent offense is no match for Duke's defense
Though Duke is averaging just 1.7 more points than Virginia, the Blue Devils have been much more consistent offensively than the Cavaliers. Duke has scored at least 17 points in every game, topping 30 three times. Meanwhile, Virginia scored 27 or more points in four games to start the season but has scored 13 or fewer in two of its last three games.
Duke is second in the ACC in scoring defense, allowing just 16.0 points per game. Only No. 1 Miami is allowing fewer points per contest. Although Duke has allowed 24 or more in back-to-back games, the defense hasn't allowed more than 28 in a single game this season and has held three teams to seven or fewer.
Play to: Duke -2.5
Score prediction: Duke 24 Virginia 21
Live Duke vs. Virginia odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Duke vs. Virginia page.
Duke vs. Virginia opening odds
- Moneyline: Duke +110 | Virginia 130
- Spread: Duke +2.5 (-110) | Virginia -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
Duke vs. Virginia weather
Weather shouldn't impact this game. Temperatures will reach a low of 37 degrees, but there is no chance of precipitation and winds aren't expected to gust beyond 6 mph.
Duke vs. Virginia injuries
- FS Ethan Minter, Virginia - out
How to watch Duke vs. Virginia: Week 8
- Date: Friday, Oct. 23
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Scott Stadium (Charlottesville, Va.)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN/ESPN Unlimited
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