Warriors vs. Nuggets Prediction: NBA Picks & Odds (Oct. 26)
Golden State is looking for its first win of the season tonight, but my Warriors vs. Nuggets prediction is more focused on the total than the side.
The Nuggets were among the worst defensive teams in the Western Conference last season, while the Warriors are trending in that direction this season. Tipoff from Ball Arena in Denver is set for 10 p.m. ET (NBCSN). The Nuggets are a 7.5-point betting favorite, and the total is set at 235.5.
Warriors vs. Nuggets picks & odds
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Over 235.5 | -110 via theScore Bet | 1.65 units to profit 1.5 units |
| Stephen Curry Over 25.5 points | -106 via DraftKings | 1.06 units to profit 1 unit |
| Nikola Jokic Over 39.5 points + rebounds | +100 via BetRivers | 1 unit to profit 1 unit |
Picks submitted: Oct. 26 at 12:42 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 3.71 units | Profit if all picks win: 3.5 units
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Warriors vs. Nuggets best bet
Over 235.5 (-110 via theScore Bet)
I don't believe either of these teams can be trusted on defense.
The Nuggets ranked 11th out of 15 Western Conference teams in defensive rating last season (116.0), while the Warriors rank 14th in the West in defensive rating this season (122.2). Yes, the Warriors will get better defensively once Jimmy Butler returns, but we're betting on the game in front of us tonight, and he's not returning anytime soon.
The Warriors are hungry for their first win of the season, so while that should increase their intensity on offense, I don't believe they have the bodies on defense to slow down Nikola Jokic and Co.
Play to: Over 237.5 (-104)
Score prediction: Nuggets 123, Warriors 115
Warriors vs. Nuggets player props
Stephen Curry Over 25.5 points (-106 via DraftKings)
Stephen Curry has scored 24 or fewer points in each of his first two games this season, but that stat doesn't reflect the reality of the situation.
Against the Lakers in the Warriors' season opener, he had 20 points in the first half but played just 7:31 in the second as Los Angeles was routing Golden State.
In his second game, he had 24 points and went an uncharacteristically low 5 of 15 from the field. A career 47.1% shooter from the field, I doubt he'll shoot that poorly again tonight, and it's hard for the Nuggets to blow out anyone when they don't play defense.
Play to: Over 26.5 (+107)
Nikola Jokic Over 39.5 points + rebounds (+100 via BetRivers)
The Warriors don't have the bodies needed to guard dominant big men. Against the Lakers, Golden State allowed Walker Kessler to score 26 points and grab nine rebounds.
Draymond Green logged the most minutes as the primary defender against Kessler, and while Green is an all-time defender, he's a starting center who stands just 6-foot-6. Graham Ike is the tallest player in their starting lineup at 6-foot-9, but it's unlikely he'll be able to slow down arguably the best player in the NBA.
Jokic is coming off a 35-point, 15-rebound performance against the Pelicans, and at least they had DeAndre Jordan to throw at him.
Play to: Over 40.5 (+111)
My betting record for NBA picks
NBA picks have been tracked since Oct. 20.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-13 | +2.54 units | 6.3% |
| Moneyline | 1-0 | +2 units | 102% |
| Spread | 6-5 | +0.22 units | 1.3% |
| Total | 2-1 | +0.48 units | 30.1% |
| Player prop | 7-7 | -0.15 units | -1% |
Live Warriors vs. Nuggets odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Warriors vs. Nuggets page.
Latest Warriors vs. Nuggets injuries
How to watch Warriors vs. Nuggets
- Date: Monday, Oct. 26
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Ball Arena (Denver)
- TV/Streaming: NBCSN
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