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Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

We're looking at our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Monday, based on the best NBA odds.

On Friday, we won both of our NBA best bets as Deandre Ayton and Clint Capela both went Over their points total, earning us two green checkmarks. With Capela trading at plus money and Ayton at even money, we were able to increase our bankroll by 2.05 units with the wins.

On Monday, several teams are playing the second leg of a back-to-back, among them the Houston Rockets, who lost 105-104 to the Los Angeles Lakers late on Sunday night. The Rockets will face the Golden State Warriors in the second leg of their back-to-back; the Warriors have lost six games in a row.

With Stephen Curry back in the lineup, can the Warriors snap their losing streak?

Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Monday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via BetMGM)

Monday’s NBA best bets

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Monday’s NBA player props

Kyle Kuzma Over 3.5 assists vs. Bucks (+128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Washington Wizards are on the fast track to having the most ping-pong balls in this upcoming NBA draft and have looked awful so far this season, but this angle plays into this player prop. If everyone plays their normal allotment of minutes, I still like this bet on Kuzma with what we are seeing in the numbers, but I also think there's a chance we catch a nice break, as well.

Reports have begun to surface that the Wizards are already over the Jordan Poole experience and will be looking to trade him. Poole's effort in the Wizards' last game against the New York Knicks was alarming. If the Wizards really begin to decrease the minutes of Poole, who is going to create offense for this team? The bench options of Bilal Coulibaly and Corey Kispert aren't necessarily players who will generate offense; their offense comes from someone else creating for them.

This is where I believe we will see Kuzma have a much more elevated role in the offense as a facilitator because the Wizards will simply need it from him. Kuzma is a forward whom we have seen bring up the ball before and be the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll instead of the screener. Also, did I mention the Wizards will need Kuzma's size against the Milwaukee Bucks frontcourt?

Kuzma is projected to have 3.8 assists on Monday against the Bucks, which is just below the four we need, but it's the +128 price point for the Over that creates a nice edge for us on this prop. Based on this projection, we can price Kuzma at -105 to go Over the total of 3.5 assists.

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 assists vs. Knicks (-135 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Towns began the season with an assists total of 3.5 trading at plus money. But it's now dropped to 2.5 after several Unders. While Towns still hasn't been cashing this bet at an alarming rate even after the drop, he's been showing signs that we should be taking the Over a lot more seriously with him at this juice.

The veteran has been averaging 7.8 potential assists per game over his last four contests. Towns was averaging only 3.3 potential assists per game prior to those recent outings. That's a huge jump for someone who's trading with a total of 2.5 assists.

Why are his potential assists so much higher? The Wolves were running a ton of double-drag screens with Anthony Edwards on the ball, Rudy Gobert rolling toward the rim, and Towns popping for a three to begin the season. Teams were fine with giving Towns that open 3-point shot. But he's been making it more consistently, so now the opposition is closing out, and he can drive and kick to other shooters.

There's also been a rise in the two-man game between Towns and Edwards. Towns is posting up and then giving the ball to Edwards on a dribble handoff, increasing his potential assists.

Towns is projected to record 3.3 dimes on Monday against the Knicks, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -165. The best price for this prop can be found at BetMGM. Act quickly, as it's already been steamed up to -156 through FanDuel.

NBA best bets made 11/20/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET

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