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NBA Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Friday

Ahaan Rungta

Last Updated: February 10, 2023 3:00 PM EST • 4 min 30 sec read.

Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

The NBA Trade Deadline was a wild one that included blockbusters around superstars like Kevin Durant, three-way trades that shook up purgatory rosters, and second-round draft picks getting thrown around like confetti.  Read on for our top NBA picks for Friday based on the best NBA odds.

It's an uncertain time in NBA betting, especially with the All-Star break a week away and playing time tampered with by load management. Given all these obstacles, Friday’s 11-game slate won't be easy to dissect but we’ve found some value spots in sturdy situations.

Stay cautious and target situations like these over the next few days—by checking accurate up-to-date injury reports and attacking defensive matchups that have proven who they are on paper over a large sample size.

Here are our NBA best bets for Friday (odds via BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.

Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

  • Phoenix Suns (+1.5) vs. Indiana Pacers
  • New York Knicks (+5.5) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
  • San Antonio Spurs (+4) vs. Detroit Pistons
  • Charlotte Hornets (+11.5) vs. Boston Celtics
  • Utah Jazz (+7) vs. Toronto Raptors
  • Houston Rockets (+11) vs. Miami Heat
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (+6.5) vs. Memphis Grizzlies
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (+3.5) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5)
  • Dallas Mavericks (+2) vs. Sacramento Kings (-2)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (-2) vs. New Orleans Pelicans
  • Milwaukee Bucks (+2) vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Friday’s NBA best bets

  • Spread: Hornets +11.5 vs. Celtics (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Spurs-Pistons Over 235.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Upset: Pelicans ML vs. Cavaliers (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop same-game parlay: Jalen Green Over 2.5 turnovers & Heat ML (+101 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

NBA top picks for Friday

Spread: Hornets +11.5 vs. Celtics (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

These teams faced off three times already this season. In those matchups, the Celtics won by 35 at home, then 16 and 12 on the road. Now, both teams are short-handed with the Hornets trading away power forward Jalen McDaniels and center Mason Plumlee and the Celtics missing All-Star Jaylen Brown due to a facial fracture.

Even though they're home, the Celtics are only 11.5, a margin they haven’t failed to cover against Charlotte yet. The public bought the good news on the return of Boston centers Al Horford and Robert Williams III but I’ll take points with a team that still has offensive potential.

It’s smart to bet on positive regression from a Hornets' offense that shot under 30% from three in 8 of their last 11 games and negative regression from a Celtics' offense that posted an ungodly 43.3% clip from three in February. Boston is just 17-19 ATS this season when favored by more than 4 points, while Charlotte is 6-3-1 ATS when they're underdogs by at least 10.

Expect the Hornets to take more jumpers in the mid-range area with veteran Plumlee traded away, playing right into the hands of a Celtics' D that allowed the 4th-most makes per game on the 7th-highest shooting percentage in the mid-range area since the New Year.

Total: Spurs-Pistons Over 235.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Over 60% of the action on this total was on the Under, yet the line creeped up by a point since opening. With Devin Vassell, Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson, and Jeremy Sochan all questionable for the Spurs, it might seem risky to back offense but this is a statement about both teams' lack of defense.

These two opponents faced off once already and totaled 230 points, just missing this total. However, the Detroit Pistons shot an abysmal 58.8% from the free throw line and the San Antonio Spurs had their preferred defensive rotation, featuring center Jakob Poeltl and point guard Tre Jones plus shooting guard Josh Richardson's versatility.

Poeltl, a cornerstone to the Spurs’ boxouts and average paint defense, is now with the Toronto Raptors. Richardson, a key to their above-average three-point D, went to the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pistons' preferred starting lineup featuring offensive-minded weapons Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Isaiah Stewart are all good to go. After shooting under 30% from three in back-to-back contests, expect buckets easier to come by for head coach Dwane Casey’s high-pace squad.

Upset: Pelicans ML vs. Cavaliers (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

This should be a feisty matchup between two teams that haven't yet lost against the spread in February. The visiting Cleveland Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS this month and won four straight games outright. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans are 3-0-1 ATS and have won all three contests at home. Expect that streak to continue today.

In their previous meeting, the Cavs won on their home floor but the Pelicans were missing forwards Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson and shot 11 fewer free throws than Cleveland. For Friday’s rematch, Ingram's back and that's a game-changer against the Cavs' drop, paint-heavy defense. Since Jan. 1, Cleveland allowed the 7th-most field goals made per game along with the 9th-highest field goal percentage in the midrange area.

Both Ingram and shooting guard C.J. McCollum made careers out of mastering the mid-range area and are in the top 10 this season among all NBA players in mid-range attempts per game.

With over 65% of the ATS action on Cleveland’s side, fade the public and take the home underdog.

Player Prop SGP: Jalen Green Over 2.5 turnovers & Heat ML (+101 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Houston Rockets visit the defensive-minded Miami Heat Friday as 12-point underdogs and are without point guard Kevin Porter Jr. (injury) and shooting guard Eric Gordon (traded to the Clippers). Because of their short-handedness, shooting guard Jalen Green should find enough minutes to turn the rock over three times today.

This season, the dribbling-obsessed Green recorded at least three turnovers in seven of his 11 games without Porter and the Rockets lost all seven of those matchups. His use should go up further with Gordon gone and facing a Heat lineup that starts four elite defenders at their position (Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo). Here's how opposing No. 1 options fared when facing this exact Miami roster this season:

  • LeBron James: 6 turnovers
  • Trae Young: 10 turnovers
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo: 3 turnovers
  • Tyrese Haliburton: 4 turnovers

Miami should have no trouble against a rebuilding Rockets team with no gameplan. Not every book blesses us with turnover props but DraftKings and Caesars make them available. I'd be okay taking Green’s Over 2.5 turnovers at -140 on DK but I prefer the correlative value of parlaying these two legs, which you can do at Caesars.

NBA best bets made 2/10/2023 at 1:28 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Ahaan Rungta
Ahaan is an analytics researcher who works in fantasy football and sports betting, focusing on MLB, NBA, and NFL. He's previously contributed fantasy baseball and football content for Fantrax and currently is a betting analyst for PlayerProfiler, where he has also been a director of analytics. When Ahaan is not capping sports props, he's often playing sports such as floor hockey and basketball and binge-watching The Voice.