🏀 Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction: WNBA Picks for Wednesday, May 27
Both the New York Liberty (3-4) and Phoenix Mercury (2-5) are hoping to get back on track after slow starts to the season. A rematch from last year's Round 1 series can help shake off the early struggles. My Mercury vs. Liberty prediction projects value on the home favorite.
New York is a 5.5-point betting favorite and the WNBA championship odds favorite despite entering on a three-game losing skid. Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., with the game airing on USA Network.
🏀 Mercury vs. Liberty prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty -5 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u → 0.91u | The market has finally created value on the title favorites who are just now getting healthy. |
| Liberty 1H Over 44.5 (-112 via DraftKings) | 0.5u → 0.45u | The Liberty rank third in the league with an average of 46.4 first-half points per game. |
| Sabrina Ionescu Under 6.5 assists (-130 via bet365) | 1u → 0.77u | Ionescu dished seven assists in her season debut, leading to an edge on an inflated line. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.13 units
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🏆 Who will win Mercury vs. Liberty?
Both teams enter tonight's matchup on a three-game losing skid, but I'm projecting the Liberty to stop the slide with an eight-point win over the Mercury on Wednesday.
Score prediction: Liberty 90, Mercury 82
💰 Mercury vs. Liberty prediction & best bet
Liberty -5 (-110)
At last, the market has provided some value on the Liberty, who have the worst ATS record in the league (2-5). Tonight marks the shortest spread for New York this season. The Liberty have been laying an average of 8.6 points on the spread thus far.
The thing is, the Liberty are now getting healthy. Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally recently returned to the lineup. It won't be long until the Liberty's full-strength roster proves why they are the title favorites.
Caesars is the lone shop offering -5, but I'd back New York at -5.5 or better.
🔥 Best Mercury vs. Liberty player prop bet
Sabrina Ionescu Under 6.5 assists (-130)
In her first game back, New York guard Sabrina Ionescu dished seven assists against the Dallas Wings. She finished with 12 potential assists (per Props Madness) in 31 minutes.
As a result, Ionescu's line has climbed from 4.5 to 6.5. I think that's created some value on the Under, as Ionescu is typically more of a scorer who likes to play off-ball. Last season, she averaged 5.6 assists and failed to clear this line in 29 of her 41 matchups.
In 2025, Ionescu averaged 4.5 assists in the six games that her line closed at 6.5 or higher.
🚀 Mercury vs. Liberty same-game parlay
A parlay of my three Mercury vs. Liberty predictions comes out to a +425 payout at FanDuel. This SGP has higher odds because it's not completely correlated, though I'm projecting Ionescu to have a bigger scoring impact in her second game. Therefore, I'd argue that these three legs have a higher correlation than expected.
💵 Mercury vs. Liberty SGP picks
- Liberty -5.5 (-105)
- Liberty first-half Over 44.5 (-114)
- Sabrina Ionescu Under 6.5 assists (-136)
Best odds: +425 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.425u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-10 | +5.45 units ✅ | 24.6% ✅ |
| Player props | 5-2 | +2.48 units ✅ | 34% ✅ |
| Parlays | 1-5 | -0.22 units ❌ | -36.7% ❌ |
📊 Live Mercury vs. Liberty odds
📺 How to watch Mercury vs. Liberty
- Date: Wednesday, May 27
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Barclays Center (Brooklyn, N.Y.)
- TV: USA Network
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