⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Wednesday, May 27
Age shows up in many ways, like that mysterious ache that can only embarrassingly be tied to a once more spry dad twisting the wrong way while playing with his kids.
Aging can come on even more suddenly when you're trying to throw a baseball ridiculously hard, which is a theme throughout my home run predictions today.
My MLB home run picks are targeting a few hurlers who could be starting an all-too-familiar decline. But first, Pete Alonso leads us off.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 27
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso home run (+330 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.66u | Has been turning sinkers into missiles, and Steven Matz leans hard on that pitch. |
| Yordan Alvarez home run (+245 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.49u | Jacob deGrom has given up 16 earned runs over his past four starts. |
| Spencer Horwitz home run (+720 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 1.44u | Jameson Taillon has allowed an MLB-worst 17 homers. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.59 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+330)
There are soft-tossers, and then there's Steven Matz. A fastball from Matz is an exceedingly rare sight, and he instead pumps in offspeed offerings and breaking balls.
Specifically, sinkers and changeups are his top two weapons, and the former takes the lead, with Matz throwing it 48.5% of the time. His changeup works off that and has been more effective, but the sinker comes with a .525 slugging percentage.
That will perk up the hitting senses of Pete Alonso, who has posted a .998 OPS over the past week, and he boasts a 65.1 hard-hit rate against sinkers.
📡 SBR Edge: Obliterating offspeed
Alonso has also been seeing changeups well, and he's recorded a .522 slugging percentage and 58.8 hard-hit rate against that offering, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run picks today
Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+260)
Time comes for us all, and it seems that's true even for Jacob deGrom, who has appeared ageless for a while when he's actually healthy.
The years of injuries and high workloads are perhaps adding up for the two-time Cy Young odds winner. He's still piling up strikeouts while boasting a 10.7 K/9, but the contact deGrom does allow is getting launched more often. His HR/9 rests at a bloated 2.0, dramatically higher than deGrom's career mark of 0.9.
DeGrom's average exit velocity permitted sits in the bottom 6% leaguewide, and his four-seamer is the main culprit, with the hurler's most-used offering coming with a .615 slugging percentage. That brings joy to the heart, soul, and bat of Yordan Alvarez, who's slugging .857 against four-seamers.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Spencer Horwitz to hit a home run (+720)
The Cubs' Jameson Taillon being homer-prone is nothing new, though this year he's taking it to another more disastrous level. He allowed 24 long balls last season, and Taillon has already surrendered a league-worst 17 now, translating to a woeful HR/9 of 2.8.
The worst is likely yet to come for a 34-year-old with a .520 expected slugging allowed. Like deGrom, we can point to a few main weaknesses. For Taillon, it's a changeup that's fooling no one, mainly because that also describes his fastball. Opposing batters are slugging .694 against his changeup.
That's significant against lefties and therefore tonight for Spencer Horwitz, as he's slugging .548 against breaking pitches and .591 when facing anything offspeed. He's also clubbed three of his six homers over the past week.
π Best home run parlay picks today
The inclusion of Horwitz as the long shot at far more appealing odds helps significantly to balance out Alvarez, who's quite rightly getting a shorter price to take deGrom deep.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Pete Alonso home run (+330)
- Yordan Alvarez home run (+245)
- Spencer Horwitz home run (+680)
Best odds: +11471 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 2.3u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-107-1 | -10.09 units β | -21.9% β |
| Home run picks | 15-70-0 | -4.47 units β | -24.8% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-21 | -1.02 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
A well-placed long-shot wager is key in the home run market, as a batter who's mispriced and in an especially appealing matchup can lead to a massive profit for you on a minimal wager.
That's Horwitz for us today, though be sure to place your bet at DraftKings. You of course want the greatest possible return while playing long odds, and some of the other best MLB betting sites are listing him notably shorter. That includes FanDuel at +680.
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