Mets vs. Phillies Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 16)
The spotlight is on two NL East rivals in the only game to open the second half the MLB season tonight, and my Mets vs. Phillies win probability from the prediction market apps sees an opportunity for the struggling underdogs.
The Mets have been woeful all season, mostly because of a putrid offense. But they're in a prime position tonight to take advantage of Aaron Nola's plummet.
It all gets underway at 7 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia (ESPN).
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🏆 Who will win Mets vs. Phillies? Live MLB win probability
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There was a brief surge in this market around midnight ET on Wednesday, with the Phillies then spiking up to get a 59% win probability. That fell quickly before staying around 57% for a while, and now it rests at about 55%.
That's all happening with a massive trading volume of just over $1.1 million, no doubt due to this game taking center stage alone tonight around MLB.
Plenty of those buying a Mets contract are surely seeing an opportunity to pounce on the spiraling Nola. The former Cy Young odds contender has steadied himself a little across his last two starts, but a disastrous June isn't far in the rearview. That's when he posted a 6.67 ERA with a mountainous .941 OPS allowed.
Much of the damage against Nola comes from hitters capitalizing on one of the worst fastballs leaguewide. Nola is giving up an astounding .368 batting average on his four-seamer and a .737 slugging percentage, according to Baseball Savant. It doesn't get much better with his also oft-used sinker, which comes with a .667 slugging percentage.
My prediction: Mets win. Nola predictably isn't missing many bats, with a barrel rate that rests in the 17th percentile.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Mets vs. Phillies?
| Hitter | Home run probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 32% |
| Juan Soto | 30% |
| Bryce Harper | 23% |
| Francisco Lindor | 19% |
| Trea Turner | 13% |
Kyle Schwarber paces this market, and the MLB home run leader is a fine option to go deep on many nights. Just maybe not this night, as he'll spend much of it against Christian Scott, the Mets' starter who boasts a 10.8 K/9.
Capitalizing on Nola's struggles is wise here too, especially on a rare evening when Juan Soto isn't getting the highest probability to launch one. Nola and his basement-dwelling fastball will have nowhere to hide against Soto, whose expected slugging percentage sits third MLB-wide at .615.
Soto is also disciplined and rarely strays outside the strike zone, which shows up in his 96th percentile chase rate. He'll force Nola to throw his tasty fastball, and then Soto will hit it to Jupiter.
My prediction: Juan Soto to hit a home run. The outfielder is slugging .684 against four-seamers, making it an especially bad night to throw a putrid fastball. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my best home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Mets vs. Phillies?
Despite improving over his last two starts, Nola has still been susceptible to early damage. He gave up two first-frame runs to the Kansas City Royals two starts ago, which came after a month of June when the veteran surrendered three such runs across six outings.
It was a disastrous month when he also allowed a .291 batting average. Toss in Citizens Bank Park being among the most homer-friendly venues leaguewide and sitting seventh, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors, and it's easy to envision some laser beams early from the top of the Mets' order.
The Mets and Phillies are neutral NRFI/YRFI teams, though the NRFI has hit in six straight Phillies games. Nola can end that run quickly tonight.
My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. We're mostly leaning on Nola here, as Scott has allowed just one first-inning score in his last eight starts.
📊 Mets vs. Phillies win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | 46% | 46.8% | ↓ 0.8% |
| Phillies | 54% | 53.2% | ↑ 0.8% |
📺 How to watch Mets vs. Phillies
- Date: Thursday, July 16
- First pitch: 7 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Mets starter: Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17 ERA)
- Phillies starter: Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.75 ERA)
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