Fire vs. Mystics Prediction: WNBA Picks for Thursday, July 16
📡 SBR Edge: Carleton Steps Up With Gustafson Out
My Fire vs. Mystics prediction includes Fire +6.5 (-110) and Bridget Carleton Over 12.5 points (-123). The spread is an overreaction to Megan Gustafson missing today's game for personal reasons, while Carleton's points prop hasn't moved enough since the injury report was released.
🏀 Fire vs. Mystics prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Fire +6.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 2.2u → 2u | The market is overreacting to Gustafson being out. |
| Over 162.5 (-110 via Caesars) | 0.55u → 0.5u | The Fire have scored 79+ points in 5 of their last 6 games. |
| Bridget Carleton Over 12.5 points (-123 via DraftKings) | 1.85u → 1.5u | Carleton will likely take on a bigger role in the offense with Gustafson out. |
Total wagered: 4.6 units | Max profit: 4 units
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🏆 Who will win Fire vs. Mystics?
I like the Mystics to beat the Fire by five points today, and since the spread is 6.5, there's value in taking the points. The Mystics have the seventh-longest WNBA championship odds, while the Fire have the fifth-longest, and although I agree that Washington is the better team, I expect this game to be more competitive than the odds suggest.
Score prediction: Mystics 85, Fire 80
💰 Fire vs. Mystics prediction & best bet
Fire +6.5 (-110)
This line opened as Fire +3.5 (-105) at DraftKings on Tuesday. The market has since overreacted to Gustafson being out, pushing this number as high as +7 (-110) at offshore sportsbooks at one point.
While I agree that 3.5 is too low of a spread with Gustafson out, it can also be true that 6.5 is too high. Washington needed four overtimes to beat Portland by just one point in their last meeting. Fire +6.5 (-110) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting sites. I would make this line Fire +5 (-103) fair odds.
🔥 Best Fire vs. Mystics player prop bet
Bridget Carleton Over 12.5 points (-123)
Expect Carleton to get more shots with Gustafson out of the lineup today.
Not only has she scored 13 or more points in six of her last 11 games - all while playing alongside Gustafson - but she has also attempted 11 or more shots in four of her last six outings. With Gustafson (and her 8.8 FGA per game) out today, I expect Carleton to attempt 13 or more shots and likely cash this bet.
Carleton Over 12.5 points (-123) is the best line available among the top sports betting apps. I would make this line Over 14 (+106) fair odds.
🚀 Fire vs. Mystics same-game parlay
Parlaying these three bets at DraftKings pays +360.
💵 Fire vs. Mystics SGP picks
- Fire +6.5
- Over 162.5
- Bridget Carleton Over 12.5 points
Odds: +360 via DraftKings
📊 Live Fire vs. Mystics odds
🚑 Fire vs. Mystics injuries
Injury report last updated at 1:19 p.m. ET.
Fire
- Sania Feagin (knee) - out
- Megan Gustafson (personal) - out
- Teja Oblak (illness) - questionable
Mystics
- None
📺 How to watch Fire vs. Mystics
- Date: Thursday, July 16
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: CareFirst Arena (Washington, D.C.)
- TV: NBA TV
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