MLB All-Star Game Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s Game? (July 14)

Firepower in abundance will meet power bats repeatedly tonight, and the MLB All-Star Game win probability from the prediction market apps shows one side with a narrow advantage.

The National League enters with one of the deepest and most intimidating pitching staffs, earning a slight edge with a 55% chance to win. However, the American League has a formidable ace of its own in Dylan Cease, whose dominant arsenal could shift the momentum and give the AL a strong opportunity to even the odds.

He'll start, as will Cristopher Sanchez for the National League. It all gets underway at 8 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia (FOX).

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🏆 Who will win the MLB All-Star Game? Live win probability

Yes, the whole premise of the All-Star Game is that it's, in fact, filled with stars. But looking at the pitching specifically makes you wonder how any ball is going to leave the infield.

That's especially true when it comes to the National League, with Sanchez passing the ball to Jacob Misiorowski, Paul Skenes, Chris Sale, Chase Burns, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The sheer amount of heat present is astounding, with the National League able to deploy four of the top 10 pitchers in four-seamer run value, according to Baseball Savant.

And that's just where it begins for the National League, as later on in the contest Jhoan Duran and Mason Miller will come out of the bullpen. They're allowing a .127 and .129 opposing batting average against their fastballs, respectively.

The American League counters with plenty of flame throwing too, including Arodis Chapman and Cam Schlittler, with the latter averaging 97.7 mph on his heater.

My prediction: National League wins. Aaron Judge is a staple at this event for the American League, and his absence looms large. As does the injury to Nick Kurtz. For more, see my American League vs. National League prediction and MLB All-Star Game player props.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of the MLB All-Star Game?

This market has plunged since starting at a far too high 60% probability of a first-inning run. It then overcorrected to a basement low 42% and now sits around 46%.

The presence of Cease alone as the American League starter could make scoring a run in the bottom half of the inning a herculean challenge. Cease is fresh off nearly completing a no-hit bid, and he comes into the All-Star Game sizzling beyond that too after recording a shutout in three of his past five outings. The AL strikeout leader's K/9 sits at a triple-take inducing 13.5, and opposing batters are slugging just .195 off his slider.

There's some vulnerability in the top half of the inning though. Sanchez has posted a 5.71 ERA over his last three outings while giving up four home runs and an opposing OPS of .937. But the overall body of work from him this campaign remains impressive. He boasts the league's best changeup in terms of run value, and it's producing a .158 expected batting average.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. Sanchez will feel even more comfortable at home too, and he's been far more effective there, too. He's produced a 0.86 ERA and .483 opposing OPS at home compared to a 4.97 and .878 on the road.

📊 MLB All-Star Game win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch the MLB All-Star Game

• Date: Tuesday, July 14
• First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• American league starter: Dylan Cease (6-4, 2.56 ERA)
• National League starter: Cristopher Sanchez (11-4, 2.62 ERA)