⚾ Marlins vs. Blue Jays Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, May 27

My Marlins vs. Blue Jays prediction backs the home favorites with Kevin Gausman throwing the best he has all season. However, I do expect Miami slugger Liam Hicks to make his imprint on this series in front of his hometown fans, and I’ve identified a great value play to go yard to round out my MLB picks.

⚾ Marlins vs. Blue Jays picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 5.32 units

🏆 Who will win Marlins vs. Blue Jays?

Kevin Gausman has won back-to-back starts, and his arm is a big reason why I expect Toronto to avoid a series loss for its fourth consecutive series.

Score prediction: Blue Jays 5, Marlins 4

💰 Marlins vs. Blue Jays prediction & best bet

Blue Jays ML (-160)

Outside of a blow-up start against the MLB-best Rays this month, Kevin Gausman has made quality starts in his other three outings, and five quality starts in his last seven appearances.

Gausman has shown impeccable control with a league-leading 1.4 BB/9 rate and 6.1 K/9 ratio. He is also on pace for his best FIP since he led the league in that metric in 2022, and is allowing under 35% hard contact for the first time in his career. He should limit a Miami offense that ranks 17th or worse in wOBA and wRC+.

🔥 Best Marlins vs. Blue Jays player prop bet

Liam Hicks Over 0.5 RBIs (+209)

Liam Hicks was born in Toronto and has had a ton of family and friend support in each game of this series thus far. It would be fitting for him to have his best day of the series at the plate with Miami going for a series win.

Though Gausman walks the fewest batters of anyone in the league, the Marlins offense is respectable when they put the bat on the ball. They rank in the top 10 in BABIP, and are in the top half of the league in strikeout rate and on-base percentage, so there should be traffic on the basepaths when Hicks hits.

Hicks owns a 95% Z-Contact rate, and he still ranks in the top three of NL catchers in home runs, RBI, slugging percentage, OPS, strikeout rate, and ISO despite some regression this month.

💣 Marlins vs. Blue Jays home run prediction

Ernie Clement to hit a home run (+1040)

Ernie Clement entered this series amid a seven-game hitting streak, during which he batted .391 (9-for-23) with five extra-base hits and six RBIs. He has since extended that hitting streak to nine with three hits over the last two days, including his fourth and fifth home runs of the season.

Clement gets a tasty matchup against Eury Perez, who has allowed at least one homer in four consecutive starts, and seven in his last six starts overall. Perez has an awful 7.03 ERA with more than half of his home runs allowed coming on the road, despite pitching 10 fewer innings on the road than at home.

Clement ranks in the 94th percentile in squared-up percentage, and is slugging .583 against fastballs, which helps against the hard-throwing Perez.

🚀 Marlins vs. Blue Jays same-game parlay

While I'm still using Hicks and Clement as part of my three-leg same-game parlay, I am changing the manner in which I'm betting on them to give the parlay a better chance of cashing. Backing Hicks to record a hit instead of an RBI helps Toronto's chances of winning outright. Clement has driven in a run in four straight games, and can do it again in a variety of ways while not needing a home run. 

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Marlins vs. Blue Jays: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Toronto's -160 moneyline odds are usually right around where I would draw the line between betting a team to win outright and laying the -1.5 runs on the run line. But given that I am getting such good value with +209 and +1040 odds (32.36% and 8.77% implied probability, respectively) on my two player prop wagers, it made the decision easier to back the steeper moneyline price.

Given how frequently Clement has turned in extra-base hits and driven in runs during his nine-game hitting streak, I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Over on his 1.5 hits/runs/RBI odds (+106) or the Over on 1.5 total bases (+175). 

📊 Live Marlins vs. Blue Jays odds

With the betting splits 2/1 in its favor, Toronto's moneyline odds have moved as much as five cents (from -155 to -160 at BetMGM and from -160 to -165 at Caesars).

The early wagers are 60/40 in favor of the Over. DraftKings and bet365 are the only top sports betting sites to touch an O/U of 8 thus far, but both have since lowered to 7.5 with extra juice on the Over to align with the rest of the market. 

📈 Marlins vs. Blue Jays betting trends

🚑 Marlins vs. Blue Jays injuries

📺 How to watch Marlins vs. Blue Jays

• Date: Wednesday, May 27
• First pitch: 1:07 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Marlins starter: Eury Perez (3-6, 4.91 ERA)
• Blue Jays starter: Kevin Gausman (4-3, 3.23 ERA)