Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction: WNBA Picks for Saturday, July 11
For the second time in eight days, the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty will square off in a matchup between two WNBA championship odds contenders.
The Liberty won by 13 on July 3, but the Lynx, who are a 1.5-point betting favorite in the rematch, are hoping to flip the script at home. I believe in the home side as I make my Liberty vs. Lynx prediction, with tipoff from Target Center in Minneapolis set for 1 p.m. ET (ABC).
🏀 Liberty vs. Lynx prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx -1.5 (-105 via bet365) | 1u → 0.95u | The Lynx have a league-best +12.9 net rating at home this year. |
| Lynx Over 87.5 (-120 via theScore Bet) | 0.5u → 0.42u | Minnesota's offensive rating is 114.4 with Miles on the floor. |
| Olivia Miles Over 5.5 assists (-112 via bet365) | 1u → 0.89u | New York allows the 11th-most assists in the league. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.26 units
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🏆 Who will win Liberty vs. Lynx?
With the rematch at Target Center, I predict the Lynx will defeat the Liberty by six points on Saturday. They've been the WNBA's best home team this year, posting a +12.9 net rating. This comes after the Lynx were a league-best 20-2 at Target Center in 2025. Considering this is a rematch from the WNBA Finals two years ago, I expect Minnesota's crowd to play a role in this meeting.
Score prediction: Lynx 90, Liberty 84
💰 Liberty vs. Lynx prediction & best bet
Lynx -1.5 (-105)
Olivia Miles is back in the lineup after missing the past two games due to an injury sustained against New York. Don't be surprised to see this line move further in Minnesota's favor.
According to Databallr, the Lynx have a +16.2 net rating in the 610 minutes that Miles has been on the court this year. They are +2.7 in the 271 minutes without her.
I'd back Minnesota at -3 or better (or take its team total) in this revenge spot.
🔥 Best Liberty vs. Lynx player prop bet
Olivia Miles Over 5.5 assists (-112)
Given her importance to Minnesota's success, Miles is worth backing in her return on Saturday. But I think she will have more success as a facilitator than a scorer after a couple of games off.
Before Miles left early against New York, she had recorded five assists on 13 potential dimes and appeared on track to clear this line. That's because the Liberty allow the 11th-most assists in the league. With New York eager to get the ball out of Miles' hands, I expect her to rack up six-plus assists on Saturday.
Miles has cleared this line in six of her nine home contests, averaging 5.9 dimes.
🏀 More WNBA player props today
I feature Angel Reese in my Fire vs. Dream prediction.
🚀 Liberty vs. Lynx same-game parlay
I'll keep it simple with my Liberty vs. Lynx parlay. I'm backing Miles' return to have a huge impact on the home team. She's not only the obvious Rookie of the Year, but Miles is a legitimate MVP contender. Her impact has been that important for one of the best teams in the league. I expect her to pick up right where she left off in a win over the Liberty.
💵 Liberty vs. Lynx SGP picks
- Olivia Miles Over 5.5 assists
- Olivia Miles 15-plus points
- Lynx ML
Best odds: +275 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.27u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 51-65 | +5.22 units ✅ | 6.2% ✅ |
| Player props | 19-13 | +4.36 units ✅ | 13.7% ✅ |
| Parlays | 3-26 | -1.39 units ❌ | -47.8% ❌ |
📊 Live Liberty vs. Lynx odds
📺 How to watch Liberty vs. Lynx
- Date: Saturday, July 11
- Tipoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Target Center (Minneapolis)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: ESPN+
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