MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (July 11)
With the Home Run Derby taking place in just two days, it seems only fitting to include one of the eight participants as part of my home run predictions today.
Ben Rice is getting hot and trying to singlehandedly carry a struggling Yankees offense out of their abyss. I’m also buying the MLB-best Marlins and their red-hot offense since the start of June with a play on Kyle Stowers, and I round out my four-pack of MLB home run picks with Kody Clemens and Rafael Devers.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 11
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kody Clemens to hit a home run (+343 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.86u | Clemens ranks in the top-9 in the AL in slugging |
| Ben Rice to hit a home run (+285 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.71u | Rice is one behind Yordan Alvarez for the AL home run lead |
| Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+480 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.2u | Devers' only two hits off of Kyle Freeland have been homers |
| Kyle Stowers to hit a home run (+325 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.81u | Stowers has been one of Miami's most consistent hitters throughout its MLB-best stretch since June 1 |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 3.58 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Kody Clemens (+343)
Kody Clemens entered yesterday ranked second among all MLB batters in hard-hit rate over the previous seven days (75%). Over that span, he averaged a 73.5 mph bat speed and produced a 94.7 mph average exit velocity, while barreling 18.8% of balls.
Clemens is on a 30-plus home run pace over a full 162-game season. He has great value to go deep off Ryan Johnson, who has pitched to an 8.10 ERA and .328 OBA in 13 ⅓ road innings. The righty has also allowed multiple home runs in three of his last five outings.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: The struggling Angels
Entering this series, the Angels had lost eight of nine games while pitching to a 5.42 ERA over that span.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Ben Rice (+285)
Ben Rice turned in his fourth career multi-home run game in the series finale against the Rays. That brought him to six home runs with 12 runs batted in over his previous nine games overall.
Even after yesterday's solo shot, any home run Rice hits from here adds to his career-high. He also became just the third Yankees slugger to surpass their previous season’s home run total before the All-Star Break (min. 20 homers hit in the previous Yankee season), joining Curtis Granderson in 2011 and Tino Martinez in 1997.
Rice now faces Miles Mikolas, whose 2.42 HR/9 rate in home starts is the third-worst among starting pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 40 innings at home.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Rafael Devers (+480)
Kyle Freeland has allowed five home runs in 61 combined at-bats to current Giants hitters, and two of those were to Rafael Devers.
Freeland’s 8.62 road ERA is worse than his 6.38 ERA at Coors Field this season. And the lefty has allowed 10 home runs over 39 ⅔ road innings compared to seven homers in 42 ⅓ innings at home.
After Colorado lost Thursday’s series opener to the Giants, it extended its road losing streak in this rivalry to seven games. The team pitched to a 6.27 ERA over that span, while San Francisco batted .308 with a .936 OPS and averaged 6.4 runs per game while winning 19 of its last 20 home games against Colorado.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Kyle Stowers (+325)
Miami entered this series against Cleveland amid a six-game winning streak. Over that span, the Marlins offense was red-hot averaging 7.3 runs, batting .330 avg, logging a team 1.045 OPS, and belting 16 home runs.
Kyle Stowers has been a big reason for that offensive explosion. He is one of five players with a barrel rate of at least 18% since June 1, and one of two of that group with a hard-hit rate of at least 60% over that stretch.
Stowers followed a 10-game home run drought with four long balls in his last six games, while Tanner Bibee is coming off allowing three home runs for just the third time this season in his last start.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🎟️ Most-bet MLB player props toay
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | Nationals | 1+ home runs | +360 |
| Griffin Jax | Rays | Over 5.5 K's | -135 |
| Trevor Larnach | Twins | Over 0.5 K's | -130 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Phillies | 1+ home runs | +210 |
| Coby Mayo | Orioles | Over 1.5 hits, runs & RBIs | +125 |
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Kody Clemens to hit a home run (+343)
- Ben Rice to hit a home run (+275)
- Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+479)
- Kyle Stowers to hit a home run (+290)
Best odds: +37413 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 37.4u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 182-268-1 | +51.12 units ✅ | +17.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 108-218 | +33.48 units ✅ | +20.5% ✅ |
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