Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds (Saturday, July 11)

My Red Sox vs. Mets prediction backs the Over because of Boston’s pitching change, which also has me expecting a big day from Caleb Durbin at the plate. But it’s New York slugger Juan Soto who is my home run play with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Red Sox vs. Mets picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Red Sox vs. Mets?

Though Boston had won six straight games and was an AL-best 12-3 since June 23 entering this series, the pitching change from Suarez to Bello has me concerned and backing the Mets.

Score prediction: Mets 6, Red Sox 4

💰 Red Sox vs. Mets prediction & best bet

Over 8.5 (-110)

During Boston’s 11-2 run in its previous 13 games entering this series, it averaged 5.0 runs and logged a plus-25 run differential. Many of those lopsided victories were a result of dominant pitching, as the Red Sox starters and bullpen pitched to a collective 2.33 and 3.63 ERA, respectively, over that span.

But Brayan Bello made four starts since being optioned to Triple-A Worcester, pitching to a 4.34 ERA and .400 BABIP. That won’t cut it against the Mets, who won four of five games to start the week while averaging 8.4 runs per game.

🔥 Best Red Sox vs. Mets player prop bet

Caleb Durbin Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+110)

Caleb Durbin has been on a power surge of late. The Red Sox slugger homered eight times in 24 games entering this series, following a 59-game stretch with one home run to start the season.

From June 4 up to the start of the last series, Durbin had a 130 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR, .258 ISO, .853 OPS, and .365 wOBA. Each of those ranked second among Red Sox batters behind Willson Contreras. 

The difference between Freddy Peralta’s 4.68 ERA and 3.75 xERA is the 10th-largest among pitchers that have thrown at least 80 innings. But even though positive regression may be looming, I cannot overlook Durbin’s .297/.343/.578 slash line with 23 RBI since late May.

💣 Red Sox vs. Mets home run prediction

Juan Soto to hit a home run (+330)

Juan Soto is catching fire at the plate, with four home runs and 12 RBI in nine games this month. He has already matched his home run total an exceeded his RBI total (10) from 25 games in June.

Soto is just 1-for-9 with a double in a limited sample size against Brayan Bello, who should see the bulk of the innings today even if he isn't the opener. The righty did not allow a home run in his 18 ⅔ innings at Triple-A, but he still allowed too high of a barrel rate (5.6%, 53rd percentile) and Z-contact percentage (82.56%, 50th percentile).

Soto has homered in three of the last five games, and remains a great value play to go deep off a predominantly sinker ball pitcher like Bello.

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🚀 Red Sox vs. Mets same-game parlay

The two legs of this same-game parlay involving player props pair nicely with helping the Over cash, which it has done 18 times in New York's last 32 games. Even though this SGP would have more of a chance of cashing if I swapped Soto's home run wager for the Over on his RBI prop, him driving in a run in five of the last six games (with three games of two-plus RBI mixed in) has me more confident in his ability to go yard. 

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Red Sox vs. Mets: MLB strategy

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Boston's six-game winning streak during which it allowed just 10 runs entering this series, and its AL-best 12-3 record since June 23 was hard to ignore. But with All-Star Ranger Suarez unavailable to make the start and with three of Peralta's last four starts seeing 12-plus runs scored, that made the switch easier for me to back the Over instead of the Red Sox as road underdogs. 

📊 Live Red Sox vs. Mets odds

The top MLB betting sites have a wide 16-cent gap between New York's shortest -145 moneyline odds at Caesars and the -161 odds at the high end of the market at bet365. The 54% of the early wagers that have backed Boston have done so likely because it is amid a seven-game winning streak while facing the last place Mets, but more clarity on the Red Sox pitching plans should have a much bigger impact on the line movement before first pitch. 

The O/U of 8.5 has not budged from its opening number at any of the top sports betting sites, and the early betting splits are similar to the moneyline wagers (54/46 in support of the Over).

📈 Red Sox vs. Mets betting trends

🚑 Red Sox vs. Mets injuries

📺 How to watch Red Sox vs. Mets

• Date: Saturday, July 11
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
• TV: FS1
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Red Sox starter: Eduardo Rivera (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Mets starter: Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.68 ERA)