Cubs vs. Reds Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 11)

The Cubs vs. Reds win probability continues their NL Central battle with Javier Assad taking the ball for Chicago against left-hander Nick Lodolo for Cincinnati. With the Cubs fighting to strengthen their postseason position and the Reds looking to build momentum before the All-Star break, every divisional game carries extra importance. The prediction market apps win probability market leans toward Chicago, making the Cubs the favorite despite playing on the road. The biggest storyline is whether the Reds can overcome that probability gap or if the Cubs' edge on the mound translates into another crucial division victory.

➡️ Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for the 2026 season.

🏆 Who will win Cubs vs. Reds? Live MLB win probability

The Kalshi market has attracted more than $100,000 in trading volume, reflecting strong interest in this NL Central matchup. Despite the Cubs entering with a talented lineup and a chance to gain ground in the division race, the market gives Chicago just a 48% chance to win. Cincinnati holds a slight edge at 52%, making this one of the tighter games on the board. That narrow probability gap suggests bettors expect a competitive contest, where starting pitching, timely hitting, and late-inning bullpen execution could ultimately determine which team comes away with the victory.

My prediction: Cubs (48%) win. The Cubs have the deeper lineup and enough power throughout the order to capitalize on scoring opportunities against Nick Lodolo. If Javier Assad keeps the ball on the ground and Chicago's bullpen protects a late lead, the Cubs have a strong path to stealing a key divisional road win.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Cubs vs. Reds?

The Kalshi home run market highlights several dangerous bats in this Cubs-Reds matchup, with Elly De La Cruz leading the way at a 23% chance to go deep. Pete Crow-Armstrong follows closely at 20%, reflecting his growing power and ability to change a game with one swing. Alex Bregman sits at 16%, giving him solid value as another legitimate home run threat. With Great American Ball Park known for rewarding power hitters, the market expects at least one long ball, making the home run props among the most intriguing betting opportunities on the board.

My prediction: Alex Bregman (16%) to hit a home run. Alex Bregman continues to be one of baseball's most disciplined hitters, consistently creating quality contact and taking advantage of mistakes in the strike zone. With a hitter-friendly ballpark and a favorable matchup, he's a strong candidate to leave the yard and outperform his 16% home run probability.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Cubs vs. Reds?

The NRFI/YRFI market for Cubs vs. Reds shapes up as one of the day's more intriguing betting options. With Javier Assad and Nick Lodolo taking the mound, both starters have the ability to navigate the top of opposing lineups when they're locating their pitches early. However, each offense features dangerous hitters capable of producing instant offense with one swing. While a first-inning run is always a possibility, the slight lean is toward NRFI, as both pitchers have enough command and pitch mix to settle in quickly and keep the opening frame scoreless.

My prediction: No run in the first inning (45%) Both Javier Assad and Nick Lodolo have the arsenal to work through the first inning efficiently, especially if they establish the strike zone early. With each starter capable of generating weak contact and avoiding free passes, NRFI offers value in what projects to be a tightly contested divisional matchup.

📊 Cubs vs. Reds win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Cubs vs. Reds

• Date: Saturday, July 11
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, OH)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Cubs starter: Javier Assad (6-1, 4.15 ERA)
• Reds starter: Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.68 ERA)