🏀 Fire vs. Liberty Prediction: WNBA Picks for Monday, May 25
After getting blown out at home by the Dallas Wings last night, the New York Liberty look to rebound tonight at 8 p.m. ET (NBCSN, Peacock) from Barclays Center in Brooklyn against the Portland Fire.
New York is a 13-point betting favorite and remains atop the WNBA championship odds, but my Fire vs. Liberty prediction projects that Portland will put up a fight.
🏀 Fire vs. Liberty prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Fire +13 (-115 via bet365) | 1u → 0.87u | New York has struggled to cover, sitting at just 2-4 ATS |
| Over 175.5 (-104 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.96u | These teams are a combined 8-4 betting the Over |
| Bridget Carleton Over 14.5 points (+102 via FanDuel) | 1u → 1.02u | Carleton has gone Over 14.5 points in four of her last five |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.85 units
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🏆 Who will win Fire vs. Liberty?
While the Fire are feisty, the Liberty have too much talent to drop a third straight game at home. With Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally back, alongside Breanna Stewart, New York should take advantage of Portland's defensive woes.
Score prediction: Liberty 95, Fire 85
💰 Fire vs. Liberty prediction & best bet
Over 175.5 (-104)
Portland has one of the worst defenses in the W, which has helped it hit the Over in four of six games, including in both previous matchups with the Liberty. While the expansion team's offense has been flashy, the Fire have the second-lowest defensive rating in the WNBA (122.8) and allow the highest effective field-goal percentage (56.1%).
The Liberty are third in the league in offensive rating (110.5) and rank among the top three in both effective field-goal percentage (55%) and 3-point percentage (43.1%).
However, their defense is giving up 87.7 PPG and allowing the league's highest 3-point rate (41.4%).
🔥 Best Fire vs. Liberty player prop bet
Bridget Carleton Over 14.5 points (+102)
With the Liberty struggling to stop shooting from behind the arc, Bridget Carleton is poised to expose their perimeter defensive issues. The Canadian is third in the W in made 3-pointers per game (3.0) and hitting at a 40% clip from deep.
Carleton's the focal point of Portland's attack, and her usage lends well to her scoring - she leads the team in MPG (29.2) and field-goal attempts per game (12.0). As the expansion team's franchise cornerstone, she sits in the top 20 in the league in PPG (16.5) and offensive win shares (0.6).
In Portland's first matchup against New York, Carleton dropped 26 and shot 5-for-11 from three.
🚀 Fire vs. Liberty same-game parlay
If Portland is going to avoid a blowout, it's going to need to turn this into a high-scoring shootout and lean heavily on its 3-point shooting from Carleton.
💵 Fire vs. Liberty SGP picks
- Fire -12.5 (-112)
- Over 176.5 (-118)
- Bridget Carleton Over 14.5 points (+102)
Best odds: +344 via FanDuel (0.2u -> 0.69u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 8.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-34 | -0.33 units ❌ | -0.6% ❌ |
| Spread picks | 8-6 | +1.25 units ✅ | 8.9% ✅ |
| Player props | 9-8 | -0.46 units ❌ | -2.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 3-12 | -0.41 units ❌ | -11.1% ❌ |
📊 Live Fire vs. Liberty odds
📺 How to watch Fire vs. Liberty
- Date: Monday, May 25
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Barclays Center (Brooklyn)
- TV: NBCSN
- Streaming: Peacock
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