⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Monday, May 25

There are some eye-popping matchups to exploit as part of my home run predictions today, which include one of the league's leaders in homers allowed.

That's Zack Littell, who will get the bulk of the innings tonight for the Washington Nationals, making him a prime victim for Jose Ramirez. But the fast-rising Christian Walker receives an even better opportunity given the pitch mix Kumar Rocker leans on consistently.

I finish off my MLB home run picks with Kazuma Okamoto, who yes has been struggling, but not in the way that was initially expected.

⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 25

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

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💣 Best home run prediction today

Christian Walker to hit a home run (+470)

There are two 30-plus home run seasons on Walker's resume. But he's already almost halfway to that mark on May 25 while tied for eighth leaguewide at 14. 

Much of Walker's success has come from a high-end ability to identify and then punish breaking balls, and especially sliders and sinkers. He's slugging .688 and .512 against those pitches, respectively.

Walker will oppose Kumar Rocker tonight, and the righty leans on those two offerings heavily as the two most-used in his arsenal, both at 36.6% of the time. He features his fastball on just 9.7% of his pitches.

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Jose Ramirez to hit a home run (+411)

Littell has started to turn himself around somewhat in May while posting a 2.55 ERA. But that feels like a mirage, as he's not far removed from a colossal 7.85 ERA during March and April, and the underlying awfulness tied to that hasn't gone anywhere.

Littell, who will get the bulk of the innings tonight against Ramirez and the Cleveland Guardians behind an opener, has posted the fifth-worst average exit velocity allowed leaguewide (93.2 mph), and he's given up the fifth-most barrels (23).

That's translated to 15 homers allowed, the second-highest total in MLB. He'll take that against Ramirez, whose expected slugging of .466 sits far higher than his actual mark of .399, which is a strong indicator of positive regression coming.

Kazuma Okamoto to hit a home run (+438)

Okamoto is still adapting, and that's resulted in strikeouts and some serious peaks and valleys. He's navigating the latter right now while slugging a mere .125 over the past week.

But the appeal is both his power, and exactly how it's coming. It was widely expected Okamoto would struggle with the MLB velocity increase. That hasn't been the case, as he's clubbed 10 homers, and his hard-hit rate of 53.4% puts him 12th-MLB wide.

He's clobbering fastballs to reach that mark, with his hard-hit rate climbing to 66% against four-seamers. Okamoto will spend much of his evening tonight against the Marlins' Janson Junk, who is far from a strikeout compiler while putting up a 6.5 K/9.

🚀 Best home run parlay picks today

Let's try to exploit a few homer-prone starters in the parlay today while also hoping Okamoto returns to his heat-hunting ways. It all leads to a juicy play with three legs at +400 odds each.

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Okamoto is especially volatile at the plate, but let's lean into that in a market with plenty of volatility regardless. Specifically, his worst issues seem to come against pitches with significant break, like sweepers and curveballs. But he's still posting a 50.0% hard-hit rate against sliders, which is Junk's most-used pitch against right-handed batters.

Combine that with his ability to torch fastballs, and he's the slugger to invest a little more into today.

If you want more dinger fun, our Mike Spector has you covered in his Yankees vs. Royals prediction.